Grand Prix draw numbers
Which of the 16 draw numbers paid off, from the fixed 20-heat programme.
Draw numbers aren't published with the results, but the programme is fixed: each draw number rides five set heats with set helmet colours, so every ride (reserves included) belongs to a draw slot.
Points above expectation by draw number
Points per meeting above what the riders who drew the number were expected to score against those opponents (season ratings, gates left out). With about 10 meetings per number the error is about ±1 point: a tendency, not proof.
- Draw 1-0.20± 0.56
- Draw 2-0.52± 0.76
- Draw 3-1.48± 0.67
- Draw 4-1.49± 0.61
- Draw 5+1.83± 0.49
- Draw 6+0.31± 1.04
- Draw 7-0.08± 0.87
- Draw 8+0.40± 1.08
- Draw 9+1.03± 0.78
- Draw 10+0.07± 0.75
- Draw 11-1.06± 0.95
- Draw 12+0.43± 0.83
- Draw 13+1.31± 0.82
- Draw 14+1.14± 1.08
- Draw 15-1.39± 0.87
- Draw 16+0.73± 1.02
Draw numbers
| Draw | Red helmets | Expected from gates | Meetings | Points per meeting | Above expectation | Heat wins | Semi-finals | Finals | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 7.67 | 10 | 8.0 ± 0.6 | -0.20 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 1 | 7.46 | 10 | 6.4 ± 0.8 | -0.52 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 1 | 7.04 | 10 | 5.0 ± 0.7 | -1.48 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 7.43 | 10 | 6.0 ± 0.6 | -1.49 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 5 | 2 | 7.67 | 10 | 11.0 ± 0.5 | +1.83 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | 7.43 | 10 | 7.1 ± 1.0 | +0.31 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| 7 | 1 | 7.04 | 10 | 6.4 ± 0.9 | -0.08 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 | 1 | 7.46 | 10 | 8.5 ± 1.1 | +0.40 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| 9 | 2 | 7.67 | 10 | 8.5 ± 0.8 | +1.03 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 | 1 | 7.04 | 10 | 7.3 ± 0.8 | +0.07 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | 1 | 7.43 | 10 | 5.0 ± 0.9 | -1.06 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | 1 | 7.46 | 10 | 8.5 ± 0.8 | +0.43 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | 2 | 7.67 | 10 | 9.3 ± 0.8 | +1.31 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| 14 | 1 | 7.46 | 10 | 8.6 ± 1.1 | +1.14 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 15 | 1 | 7.04 | 10 | 6.5 ± 0.9 | -1.39 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | 1 | 7.43 | 10 | 7.4 ± 1.0 | +0.73 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 |