Grand Prix season predictor
The next Speedway Grand Prix season simulated thousands of times: every round, the title race and the champion.
Predicted 2027 world champion
Champion in 52 % of the simulated seasons, 169 points on average.
4,000 simulated seasons of 11 rounds with the 15 confirmed permanent riders; strengths from the power ranking of October 16, 2026.
Title chances
Share of the simulated seasons each rider won the title.
- 🇬🇧 Robert Lambert52.1 %
- 🇵🇱 Bartosz Zmarzlik42.7 %
- 🇦🇺 Brady Kurtz4.9 %
Expected season
Average championship points, meeting wins and podiums over the simulated seasons.
| Rider | Points | Wins | Podiums |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇬🇧 Robert Lambert | 169 | 2.8 | 6.7 |
| 🇵🇱 Bartosz Zmarzlik | 166 | 2.6 | 6.5 |
| 🇦🇺 Brady Kurtz | 143 | 1.5 | 4.3 |
| 🇩🇰 Michael Jepsen Jensen | 115 | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| 🇬🇧 Dan Bewley | 107 | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| 🇩🇰 Leon Madsen | 104 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| 🇵🇱 Patryk Dudek | 103 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| 🇦🇺 Max Fricke | 101 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 🇱🇻 Andzejs Lebedevs | 100 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 🇦🇺 Jack Holder | 98 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| 🇵🇱 Kacper Woryna | 81 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| 🇸🇪 Fredrik Lindgren | 77 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| 🇵🇱 Maciej Janowski | 75 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| 🇸🇪 Kim Nilsson | 73 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| 🇦🇺 Rohan Tungate | 59 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
The predicted 2027 title race
Average championship points after each round for the eight riders with the most expected points; the shaded bands are where the top three land in 80 % of the simulated seasons.
- Robert Lambert
- Bartosz Zmarzlik
- Brady Kurtz
- Michael Jepsen Jensen
- Dan Bewley
- Leon Madsen
- Patryk Dudek
- Max Fricke
Who leads the championship
Chance to lead the standings after each round (in %); after a single round many riders can lead.
- Robert Lambert
- Bartosz Zmarzlik
- Brady Kurtz
- Michael Jepsen Jensen
- Dan Bewley
- Leon Madsen
- Max Fricke
- Andzejs Lebedevs
- Jack Holder
- Other riders
Final position probabilities
How often each rider finished the simulated season in each place (in %).
| 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | 5. | 6. | 7. | 8. | 9. | 10. | 11. | 12. | 13. | 14. | 15. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇬🇧 Robert Lambert | 52 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| 🇵🇱 Bartosz Zmarzlik | 43 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| 🇦🇺 Brady Kurtz | 5 | 17 | 55 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| 🇩🇰 Michael Jepsen Jensen | 0 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 🇬🇧 Dan Bewley | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 🇩🇰 Leon Madsen | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 🇵🇱 Patryk Dudek | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 🇦🇺 Max Fricke | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| 🇱🇻 Andzejs Lebedevs | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 🇦🇺 Jack Holder | 1 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 🇵🇱 Kacper Woryna | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 7 | ||
| 🇸🇪 Fredrik Lindgren | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 9 | ||
| 🇵🇱 Maciej Janowski | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 13 | ||
| 🇸🇪 Kim Nilsson | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 23 | 16 | |||
| 🇦🇺 Rohan Tungate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 53 |
Round by round
The favourite to win each meeting (with the chance) and the three riders with the most expected points.
| Round | Date | Track | Favourite | Most expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 1 | Donji Kraljevec | 🇵🇱 Bartosz Zmarzlik 29 % | Zmarzlik 15.9, Lambert 15.8, Kurtz 12.2 |
| 2 | May 15 | Warsaw | 🇬🇧 Robert Lambert 28 % | Lambert 15.7, Zmarzlik 14.9, Kurtz 13.9 |
| 3 | May 29 | Prague | 🇵🇱 Bartosz Zmarzlik 31 % | Zmarzlik 16.0, Lambert 14.3, Kurtz 12.0 |
| 4 | Venue to be announced | 🇬🇧 Robert Lambert 26 % | Lambert 15.3, Zmarzlik 15.0, Kurtz 12.8 | |
| 5 | Jul 3 | Wroclaw | 🇵🇱 Bartosz Zmarzlik 27 % | Zmarzlik 15.5, Lambert 14.5, Kurtz 14.0 |
| 6 | Jul 17 | Riga | 🇬🇧 Robert Lambert 26 % | Lambert 15.4, Zmarzlik 15.2, Kurtz 13.4 |
| 7 | Aug 14 | Ipswich | 🇦🇺 Brady Kurtz 23 % | Kurtz 15.0, Lambert 14.7, Zmarzlik 13.7 |
| 8 | Sep 11 | Vojens | 🇵🇱 Bartosz Zmarzlik 26 % | Zmarzlik 15.5, Lambert 15.2, Kurtz 12.4 |
| 9 | Sep 25 | Torun | 🇬🇧 Robert Lambert 39 % | Lambert 17.0, Zmarzlik 14.9, Dudek 12.0 |
| 10 | Oct 29 | Adelaide | 🇬🇧 Robert Lambert 27 % | Lambert 15.3, Zmarzlik 15.0, Kurtz 12.8 |
| 11 | Oct 30 | Adelaide | 🇬🇧 Robert Lambert 26 % | Lambert 15.3, Zmarzlik 15.0, Kurtz 12.7 |
Expected points per round
Average meeting points per rider and round (20 for a win); hover for the chance to win.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇬🇧 Robert Lambert | 15.8 | 15.7 | 14.3 | 15.3 | 14.5 | 15.4 | 14.7 | 15.2 | 17.0 | 15.3 | 15.3 |
| 🇵🇱 Bartosz Zmarzlik | 15.9 | 14.9 | 16.0 | 15.0 | 15.5 | 15.2 | 13.7 | 15.5 | 14.9 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| 🇦🇺 Brady Kurtz | 12.2 | 13.9 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 12.7 |
| 🇩🇰 Michael Jepsen Jensen | 9.8 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| 🇬🇧 Dan Bewley | 9.4 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 9.8 |
| 🇩🇰 Leon Madsen | 9.2 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| 🇵🇱 Patryk Dudek | 8.9 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| 🇦🇺 Max Fricke | 8.7 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| 🇱🇻 Andzejs Lebedevs | 8.7 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 9.2 |
| 🇦🇺 Jack Holder | 9.6 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 8.7 |
| 🇵🇱 Kacper Woryna | 7.4 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 7.8 |
| 🇸🇪 Fredrik Lindgren | 7.1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 6.1 |
| 🇵🇱 Maciej Janowski | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 6.4 |
| 🇸🇪 Kim Nilsson | 6.9 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
| 🇦🇺 Rohan Tungate | 5.8 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 6.0 |
How the prediction works
- Each meeting is run heat by heat: 16 riders, draw numbers at random, the fixed 20-heat programme with its gates, then the semi-finals and the final as the Grand Prix runs them.
- Every heat is decided by the riders' strengths from the power ranking plus the gate advantage of that track; at known tracks each rider's record and number of meetings there count as the model learned them.
- Points are the FIM's 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 11 … 1 per meeting; the few qualifying-sprint points are left out, because the results don't say how they are awarded.
- Rounds already raced count with their real result. Falls, exclusions, injuries and form changes during the season are not modelled, so the chances are wider in reality.