GRU vs LES
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, April 23, 2023 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Max Fricke1 D 1 13
- 10Frederik Jakobsen3 3 0 1 29
- 11Gleb Chugunov3 0 3 2 08
- 12Norbert Krakowiak0 1 2 03+1
- 13Nicki Pedersen2 2 3 3 111
- 14Kacper Pludra3 1 0 W4
- 15Kacper Łobodziński2 0 02+1
- 1Bartosz Smektała2 1 2 2 18+2
- 2Janusz Kołodziej3 3 3 3 315
- 3Jaimon Lidsey0 2 2 0 37+1
- 4Grzegorz Zengota2 3 1 3 211+2
- 5Chris Holder1 2 1 2 u6
- 6Damian Ratajczak0 0 00
- 7Hubert Jabłoński1 1 13
Heat by heat
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU3
- Bartosz Smektała · LES2
- Max Fricke · GRU1
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES0
- Kacper Pludra · GRU3
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU2*
- Hubert Jabłoński · LES1
- Damian Ratajczak · LES0
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Chris Holder · LES1
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU0
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU3
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES2
- Kacper Pludra · GRU1
- Damian Ratajczak · LES0
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES3
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES2*
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU0
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Bartosz Smektała · LES1
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU3
- Chris Holder · LES2
- Hubert Jabłoński · LES1
- Max Fricke · GRUD
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES2
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES1*
- Kacper Pludra · GRU0
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES3
- Bartosz Smektała · LES2*
- Max Fricke · GRU1
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU0
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU3
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU2*
- Chris Holder · LES1
- Damian Ratajczak · LES0
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES3
- Bartosz Smektała · LES2*
- Max Fricke · GRU1
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU0
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES3
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU2
- Hubert Jabłoński · LES1
- Kacper Łobodziński · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Chris Holder · LES2
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU1
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES0
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES3
- Frederik Jakobsen · GRU2
- Bartosz Smektała · LES1
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES3
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES2*
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU1
- Gleb Chugunov · GRU0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 24 → 18 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 15 km/h SW
- gusts up to 35 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 39 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 6 | 12 | −6 | +6 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 3 | 9 | −6 | +6 | |
| GRU | LES | GRU | LES | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +6 | 89 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | -4 | 28 % |
| 10 | 0 | 56 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | -6 | 6 % |
| 13 | -4 | 14 % |
| 14 | -6 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janusz Kołodziej | 5 | 11.9 | 15 | +3.1 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
| Grzegorz Zengota | 5 | 8.8 | 11 | +2.2 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 5 | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 |
| Hubert Jabłoński | 3 | 2.4 | 3 | +0.6 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 7.5 | 8 | +0.5 |
| Kacper Łobodziński | 3 | 1.8 | 2 | +0.2 |
| Kacper Pludra | 4 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Bartosz Smektała | 5 | 8.4 | 8 | -0.4 |
| Norbert Krakowiak | 4 | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 |
| Chris Holder | 4 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 6.1 | 3 | -3.1 |
| Damian Ratajczak | 3 | 4.0 | 0 | -4.0 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.