OST vs LES
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, July 3, 2022 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Tomasz Gapiński0 2 1 03
- 10Grzegorz Walasek3 2 1 0 1 07+1
- 12Oliver Berntzon1 1 2 2 06+1
- 13Chris Holder0 1 3 3 29
- 14Kacper Grzelak1 0 01
- 15Jakub Krawczyk0 0 2 24
- 16Tim Sörensen1 1 13+2
- 1Jason Doyle2 2 2 3 312+3
- 2Piotr Pawlicki3 3 3 3 113
- 3David Bellego3 0 1 2 39+1
- 4Jaimon Lidsey2 3 2 1 19
- 5Janusz Kołodziej2 3 38+1
- 6Damian Ratajczak2 1 03+2
- 7Hubert Jabłoński3 0 03
- 8Keynan Rew00
Heat by heat
- David Bellego · LES3
- Jason Doyle · LES2*
- Tim Sörensen · OST1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
- Hubert Jabłoński · LES3
- Damian Ratajczak · LES2*
- Kacper Grzelak · OST1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Chris Holder · OST0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES2
- Damian Ratajczak · LES1*
- Kacper Grzelak · OST0
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1*
- David Bellego · LES0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Jason Doyle · LES2*
- Chris Holder · OST1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Hubert Jabłoński · LES0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES2
- David Bellego · LES1*
- Kacper Grzelak · OST0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Jason Doyle · LES2*
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Tim Sörensen · OST1*
- Damian Ratajczak · LES0
- Jason Doyle · LES3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2
- Tim Sörensen · OST1*
- Hubert Jabłoński · LES0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- David Bellego · LES2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Keynan Rew · LES0
- David Bellego · LES3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST0
- Jason Doyle · LES3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 25 → 20 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 9 km/h N
- gusts up to 15 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 57 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 6 | 18 | −12 | +12 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| OST | LES | OST | LES | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -8 | 11 % |
| 3 | -12 | – |
| 4 | -12 | 10 % |
| 5 | -12 | 6 % |
| 6 | -16 | 6 % |
| 7 | -16 | 4 % |
| 8 | -16 | 1 % |
| 9 | -20 | 1 % |
| 10 | -20 | 2 % |
| 11 | -22 | 1 % |
| 12 | -22 | 0 % |
| 13 | -20 | 0 % |
| 14 | -22 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piotr Pawlicki | 5 | 9.3 | 13 | +3.7 |
| David Bellego | 5 | 7.0 | 9 | +2.0 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 4 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 |
| Janusz Kołodziej | 3 | 7.4 | 8 | +0.6 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 5 | 8.8 | 9 | +0.2 |
| Hubert Jabłoński | 3 | 3.0 | 3 | -0.0 |
| Tim Sörensen | 3 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Keynan Rew | 1 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 3 | 1.7 | 1 | -0.7 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| Damian Ratajczak | 3 | 3.8 | 3 | -0.8 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 4 | 4.7 | 3 | -1.7 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 6 | 9.0 | 7 | -2.0 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 8.1 | 6 | -2.1 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.