GRU vs LES
PGE Ekstraliga · Friday, May 21, 2021 · VENTURE INDUSTRIES ARENA, Grudziądz
Results
- 9Przemysław Pawlicki2 2 3 0 07
- 10Norbert Krakowiak0 11+1
- 11Paweł Miesiąc1 0 1 2 15+1
- 12Kenneth Bjerre1 3 3 2 110
- 13Nicki Pedersen3 3 2 2 D10
- 14Denis Zieliński2 0 02
- 15Mateusz Bartkowiak1 0 12+2
- 16Roman Lakhbaum2 02
- 1Emil Sajfutdinow3 2 2 1 311
- 2Janusz Kołodziej2 1 1 3 29+3
- 3Jaimon Lidsey0 1 1 02+1
- 4Jason Doyle3 2 3 3 213+1
- 5Piotr Pawlicki0 3 2 3 311
- 6Kacper Pludra3 1 04
- 7Krzysztof Sadurski0 1 01
Heat by heat
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU1*
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES0
- Kacper Pludra · LES3
- Denis Zieliński · GRU2
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU1*
- Krzysztof Sadurski · LES0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES2
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU1
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES0
- Jason Doyle · LES3
- Roman Lakhbaum · GRU2
- Kacper Pludra · LES1
- Denis Zieliński · GRU0
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU3
- Jason Doyle · LES2
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES1*
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES2
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES1*
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU2
- Krzysztof Sadurski · LES1
- Roman Lakhbaum · GRU0
- Jason Doyle · LES3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES1
- Denis Zieliński · GRU0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES2
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES1*
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU0
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU3
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES2
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU1
- Kacper Pludra · LES0
- Jason Doyle · LES3
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU2
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES1
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU0
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES3
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU2
- Mateusz Bartkowiak · GRU1*
- Krzysztof Sadurski · LES0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Nicki Pedersen · GRU2
- Norbert Krakowiak · GRU1*
- Jaimon Lidsey · LES0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES2*
- Paweł Miesiąc · GRU1
- Przemysław Pawlicki · GRU0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES3
- Jason Doyle · LES2*
- Kenneth Bjerre · GRU1
- Nicki Pedersen · GRUD
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 17 → 11 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 13 km/h SE
- gusts up to 37 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 71 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 2 | 10 | −8 | +8 | |
| GRU | LES | GRU | LES | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead GRU
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | -2 | 46 % |
| 8 | -4 | 35 % |
| 9 | -4 | 28 % |
| 10 | -2 | 36 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | -4 | 20 % |
| 13 | -4 | 14 % |
| 14 | -8 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Bjerre | 5 | 5.4 | 10 | +4.6 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 10.7 | 13 | +2.3 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 5 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| Piotr Pawlicki | 5 | 9.9 | 11 | +1.1 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 9.7 | 10 | +0.3 |
| Denis Zieliński | 3 | 1.8 | 2 | +0.2 |
| Kacper Pludra | 3 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Norbert Krakowiak | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | +0.0 |
| Roman Lakhbaum | 2 | 2.1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| Mateusz Bartkowiak | 3 | 2.4 | 2 | -0.4 |
| Paweł Miesiąc | 5 | 6.0 | 5 | -1.0 |
| Janusz Kołodziej | 5 | 10.8 | 9 | -1.8 |
| Krzysztof Sadurski | 3 | 3.3 | 1 | -2.3 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 6.5 | 2 | -4.5 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.