TOR vs LES
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, May 7, 2017 · Motoarena im. Mariana Rosego, Toruń
Results
- 9Chris Holder1 2 0 3 06+1
- 10Michael Jepsen Jensen3 3 1 3 212
- 11Adrian Miedziński2 1 2 2 310
- 12Paweł Przedpełski1 0 1 02+1
- 13Greg Hancock3 3 3 2 011+1
- 14Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński1 1 02
- 15Daniel Kaczmarek0 1 01
- 1Emil SajfutdinowD 2 2 3 18+2
- 2Peter Kildemand2 3 1 1 310+1
- 3Piotr PawlickiD 0 3 03
- 4Janusz Kołodziej3 2 2 1 19+2
- 5Nicki Pedersen0 1 3 2 28
- 6Dominik Kubera2 0 13+1
- 7Bartosz Smektała3 2 05
Heat by heat
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · TOR3
- Peter Kildemand · LES2
- Chris Holder · TOR1
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LESD
- Bartosz Smektała · LES3
- Dominik Kubera · LES2*
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR1
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TOR0
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1
- Piotr Pawlicki · LESD
- Greg Hancock · TOR3
- Bartosz Smektała · LES2
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TOR1
- Nicki Pedersen · LES0
- Peter Kildemand · LES3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES2*
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR1
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR0
- Greg Hancock · TOR3
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES2
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR1
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · TOR3
- Chris Holder · TOR2*
- Nicki Pedersen · LES1
- Dominik Kubera · LES0
- Greg Hancock · TOR3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES2
- Peter Kildemand · LES1*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · TOR0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES2*
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · TOR1
- Chris Holder · TOR0
- Nicki Pedersen · LES3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR1*
- Bartosz Smektała · LES0
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · TOR3
- Greg Hancock · TOR2*
- Peter Kildemand · LES1
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES3
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR2
- Dominik Kubera · LES1
- Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński · TOR0
- Chris Holder · TOR3
- Nicki Pedersen · LES2
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES1*
- Paweł Przedpełski · TOR0
- Adrian Miedziński · TOR3
- Nicki Pedersen · LES2
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES1*
- Chris Holder · TOR0
- Peter Kildemand · LES3
- Michael Jepsen Jensen · TOR2
- Janusz Kołodziej · LES1
- Greg Hancock · TOR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Showers
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Temperature
- 8 °C
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Wind
- 5 km/h NW
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 1 mm
- Rain likely: a second model agrees
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 11 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 96 %
- Measured · Torun, 3 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| TOR | LES | TOR | LES | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead TOR
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | -4 | 34 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | -2 | 44 % |
| 10 | -2 | 36 % |
| 11 | +2 | 68 % |
| 12 | 0 | 57 % |
| 13 | 0 | 56 % |
| 14 | 0 | 56 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jepsen Jensen | 5 | 6.3 | 12 | +5.7 |
| Peter Kildemand | 5 | 6.3 | 10 | +3.7 |
| Adrian Miedziński | 5 | 6.6 | 10 | +3.4 |
| Bartosz Smektała | 3 | 3.1 | 5 | +1.9 |
| Greg Hancock | 5 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| Igor Kopeć-Sobczyński | 3 | 1.8 | 2 | +0.2 |
| Dominik Kubera | 3 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 8.7 | 8 | -0.7 |
| Janusz Kołodziej | 5 | 10.5 | 9 | -1.5 |
| Daniel Kaczmarek | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | -1.9 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 |
| Piotr Pawlicki | 4 | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 11.1 | 8 | -3.1 |
| Paweł Przedpełski | 4 | 5.3 | 2 | -3.3 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.