LES vs TAR
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, July 10, 2016 · Stadion im. Alfreda Smoczyka, Leszno
Results
- 9Piotr Pawlicki3 2 3 2 010+1
- 10Tobiasz Musielak2 1 1 15+3
- 11Grzegorz Zengota2 1 1 3 310+2
- 12Nicki Pedersen3 2 3 3 314
- 13Emil Sajfutdinow2 1 2 2 29+1
- 14Bartosz SmektałaM 0 11
- 15Daniel Kaczmarek3 0 03
- 1Leon Madsen1 3 3 29
- 2Piotr Świderski0 0 1 01
- 3Kenneth Bjerre0 3 0 3 1 18+1
- 4Mikkel Michelsen1 2 2 05+1
- 5Janusz Kołodziej3 3 2 1 0 211
- 6Arkadiusz Madej2 1 0 03
- 7Patryk Rolnicki1 U1
Heat by heat
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES2*
- Leon Madsen · TAR1
- Piotr Świderski · TAR0
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LES3
- Arkadiusz Madej · TAR2
- Patryk Rolnicki · TAR1
- Bartosz Smektała · LESM
- Nicki Pedersen · LES3
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES2*
- Mikkel Michelsen · TAR1
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR0
- Janusz Kołodziej · TAR3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES2
- Arkadiusz Madej · TAR1
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LES0
- Leon Madsen · TAR3
- Nicki Pedersen · LES2
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES1*
- Piotr Świderski · TAR0
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR3
- Mikkel Michelsen · TAR2*
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES1
- Bartosz Smektała · LES0
- Janusz Kołodziej · TAR3
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES2
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES1*
- Arkadiusz Madej · TAR0
- Leon Madsen · TAR3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES2
- Piotr Świderski · TAR1
- Daniel Kaczmarek · LES0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Mikkel Michelsen · TAR2
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES1
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR0
- Nicki Pedersen · LES3
- Janusz Kołodziej · TAR2
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES1
- Patryk Rolnicki · TARU
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES2
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES1*
- Piotr Świderski · TAR0
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES3
- Leon Madsen · TAR2
- Bartosz Smektała · LES1
- Arkadiusz Madej · TAR0
- Nicki Pedersen · LES3
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES2*
- Janusz Kołodziej · TAR1
- Mikkel Michelsen · TAR0
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · LES2*
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR1
- Janusz Kołodziej · TAR0
- Nicki Pedersen · LES3
- Janusz Kołodziej · TAR2
- Kenneth Bjerre · TAR1*
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Temperature
- 29 °C
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Wind
- 13 km/h SW
- gusts up to 31 km/h
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 36 %
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| LES | TAR | LES | TAR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LES
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +8 | 94 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +2 | 74 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +10 | 100 % |
| 14 | +14 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 8.8 | 14 | +5.2 |
| Grzegorz Zengota | 5 | 8.0 | 10 | +2.0 |
| Mikkel Michelsen | 4 | 3.4 | 5 | +1.6 |
| Leon Madsen | 4 | 7.5 | 9 | +1.5 |
| Arkadiusz Madej | 4 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| Piotr Pawlicki | 5 | 9.3 | 10 | +0.7 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 4 | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 |
| Daniel Kaczmarek | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Kenneth Bjerre | 6 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| Patryk Rolnicki | 2 | 1.7 | 1 | -0.7 |
| Piotr Świderski | 4 | 3.2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| Bartosz Smektała | 3 | 3.3 | 1 | -2.3 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 11.3 | 9 | -2.3 |
| Janusz Kołodziej | 6 | 13.8 | 11 | -2.8 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.