LES vs GRU
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, April 12, 2015 · Stadion im. Alfreda Smoczyka, Leszno
Results
- 9Nicki Pedersen3 3 3 2 314
- 10Tomas H Jonasson2 1 2 27+2
- 11Tobiasz Musielak3 3 2 1 110
- 12Przemysław Pawlicki0 2 1 14+3
- 13Grzegorz Zengota3 2 2 1 19+1
- 14Piotr Pawlicki3 0 3 39
- 15Bartosz Smektała0 1 01
- 1Artem Laguta1 1 3 3 2 T10
- 2Daniel Jeleniewski0 00
- 3Rafał Okoniewski2 1 1 0 04
- 4Krzysztof Buczkowski1 3 1 0 3 210+1
- 5Tomasz Gollob2 2 3 0 29
- 6Marcin Nowak2 0 0 02
- 7Mike Trzensiok1 0 01+1
Heat by heat
- Nicki Pedersen · LES3
- Tomas H Jonasson · LES2*
- Artem Laguta · GRU1
- Daniel Jeleniewski · GRU0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Marcin Nowak · GRU2
- Mike Trzensiok · GRU1*
- Bartosz Smektała · LES0
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES3
- Rafał Okoniewski · GRU2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · GRU1*
- Przemysław Pawlicki · LES0
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES3
- Tomasz Gollob · GRU2
- Bartosz Smektała · LES1
- Mike Trzensiok · GRU0
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES3
- Przemysław Pawlicki · LES2*
- Artem Laguta · GRU1
- Daniel Jeleniewski · GRU0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · GRU3
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES2
- Rafał Okoniewski · GRU1
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES0
- Nicki Pedersen · LES3
- Tomasz Gollob · GRU2
- Tomas H Jonasson · LES1
- Marcin Nowak · GRU0
- Artem Laguta · GRU3
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · GRU1
- Bartosz Smektała · LES0
- Nicki Pedersen · LES3
- Tomas H Jonasson · LES2*
- Rafał Okoniewski · GRU1
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · GRU0
- Tomasz Gollob · GRU3
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · LES1*
- Mike Trzensiok · GRU0
- Artem Laguta · GRU3
- Tomas H Jonasson · LES2
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES1*
- Rafał Okoniewski · GRU0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Artem Laguta · GRU2
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES1
- Marcin Nowak · GRU0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · GRU3
- Nicki Pedersen · LES2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · LES1*
- Tomasz Gollob · GRU0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Tomasz Gollob · GRU2
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES1
- Rafał Okoniewski · GRU0
- Nicki Pedersen · LES3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · GRU2
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES1
- Marcin Nowak · GRU0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Temperature
- 14 → 12 °C
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Wind
- 10 km/h W
- gusts up to 29 km/h
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 30 %
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| LES | GRU | LES | GRU | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LES
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +10 | 96 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +10 | 97 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +12 | 99 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +12 | 100 % |
| 12 | +14 | 100 % |
| 13 | +14 | 100 % |
| 14 | +16 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 10.1 | 14 | +3.9 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.6 | 10 | +1.4 |
| Grzegorz Zengota | 5 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| Piotr Pawlicki | 4 | 8.1 | 9 | +0.9 |
| Tomas H Jonasson | 4 | 6.3 | 7 | +0.7 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 6 | 9.9 | 10 | +0.1 |
| Marcin Nowak | 4 | 1.9 | 2 | +0.1 |
| Tomasz Gollob | 5 | 9.3 | 9 | -0.3 |
| Rafał Okoniewski | 5 | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 |
| Artem Laguta | 5 | 10.8 | 10 | -0.8 |
| Daniel Jeleniewski | 2 | 1.2 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 4 | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 |
| Bartosz Smektała | 3 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| Mike Trzensiok | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | -1.9 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.