LES vs TAR
PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, September 14, 2014 · Stadion im. Alfreda Smoczyka, Leszno
Results
- 9Nicki PedersenW 2 3 3 2 111+3
- 10Damian Baliński1 2 2 W5+2
- 11Grzegorz Zengota2 2 2 W 28
- 12Przemysław Pawlicki0 0 11
- 13Mikkel Michelsen0 00
- 14Piotr Pawlicki3 3 2 3 213+1
- 15Tobiasz Musielak2 2 2 3 312+1
- 1Martin Vaculik2 1 3 17+1
- 2Krzysztof Buczkowski3 3 1 1 08
- 3Artem Laguta3 1 0 26
- 4Ernest Koza0 00
- 5Janusz Kołodziej3 1 3 1 0 311
- 6Kacper GomolskiD 1 0 1 3 16
- 7Mateusz Borowicz1 1 W2
Heat by heat
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · TAR3
- Martin Vaculik · TAR2*
- Damian Baliński · LES1
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES2*
- Mateusz Borowicz · TAR1
- Kacper Gomolski · TARD
- Artem Laguta · TAR3
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES2
- Kacper Gomolski · TAR1
- Przemysław Pawlicki · LES0
- Janusz Kołodziej · TAR3
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES2
- Mateusz Borowicz · TAR1
- Mikkel Michelsen · LES0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · TAR3
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES2
- Martin Vaculik · TAR1
- Przemysław Pawlicki · LES0
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Nicki Pedersen · LES2*
- Artem Laguta · TAR1
- Ernest Koza · TAR0
- Nicki Pedersen · LES3
- Damian Baliński · LES2*
- Janusz Kołodziej · TAR1
- Kacper Gomolski · TAR0
- Martin Vaculik · TAR3
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · TAR1
- Mikkel Michelsen · LES0
- Nicki Pedersen · LES3
- Damian Baliński · LES2*
- Kacper Gomolski · TAR1
- Artem Laguta · TAR0
- Janusz Kołodziej · TAR3
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES2
- Przemysław Pawlicki · LES1
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES3
- Artem Laguta · TAR2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · TAR1
- Kacper Gomolski · TAR3
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES2
- Martin Vaculik · TAR1
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES3
- Nicki Pedersen · LES2*
- Janusz Kołodziej · TAR1
- Ernest Koza · TAR0
- Tobiasz Musielak · LES3
- Piotr Pawlicki · LES2*
- Kacper Gomolski · TAR1
- Janusz Kołodziej · TAR0
- Janusz Kołodziej · TAR3
- Grzegorz Zengota · LES2
- Nicki Pedersen · LES1*
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · TAR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Temperature
- 24 → 22 °C
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Wind
- 12 km/h E
- gusts up to 42 km/h
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 2.5 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 62 %
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 10 | 14 | −4 | +4 | |
| 5–7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| LES | TAR | LES | TAR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LES
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -4 | 38 % |
| 5 | -6 | 22 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +2 | 73 % |
| 13 | +6 | 96 % |
| 14 | +10 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.2 | 12 | +3.8 |
| Piotr Pawlicki | 5 | 9.3 | 13 | +3.7 |
| Damian Baliński | 4 | 2.8 | 5 | +2.2 |
| Grzegorz Zengota | 5 | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| Mateusz Borowicz | 3 | 1.2 | 2 | +0.8 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 5 | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 |
| Martin Vaculik | 4 | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Ernest Koza | 2 | 0.8 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Kacper Gomolski | 6 | 7.0 | 6 | -1.0 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 6 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| Janusz Kołodziej | 6 | 12.5 | 11 | -1.5 |
| Mikkel Michelsen | 2 | 2.1 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Artem Laguta | 4 | 8.5 | 6 | -2.5 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 3 | 3.6 | 1 | -2.6 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.