LES vs GOR

PGE Ekstraliga · Sunday, July 15, 2012 · Stadion im. Alfreda Smoczyka, Leszno

Results

LES 51 : 39 GOR

LES

9Przemysław Pawlicki2 D 1 1 W4+2
10Kamil Adamczewski0 3 2 27+1
11Troy Batchelor0 3 1 04
12Damian Baliński3 2 3 210+1
13Jurica Pavlic3 1 2 3 09+1
14Tobiasz Musielak3 0 2 27
15Piotr Pawlicki2 2 3 310+2

GOR

1Krzysztof Kasprzak3 1 0 1 27
2Michael Jepsen Jensen1 0 12
3Matej Zagar1 2 0 03+2
4Niels Kristian Iversen2 3 1 3 3 113+1
5Tomasz Gollob1 1 2 0 15
6Bartosz Zmarzlik1 2 T 3 39
7Adrian Cyfer0 00

Heat by heat

Heat 161.69 s5:1

Heat 261.44 s2:4

Heat 361.00 s3:3

Heat 460.90 s5:1

Jurica Pavlic · LES3
Piotr Pawlicki · LES2*
Tomasz Gollob · GOR1
Adrian Cyfer · GOR0

Heat 561.84 s5:1

Heat 661.03 s1:5

Heat 761.59 s3:3

Heat 862.00 s5:1

Heat 961.28 s3:3

Heat 1061.93 s4:2

Heat 1161.84 s5:1

Heat 1261.87 s2:4

Heat 1361.38 s3:3

Heat 1461.82 s2:4

Heat 1562.25 s3:3

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky: Cloudy; Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Temperature: 18 → 15 °C; Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Wind: 10 km/h W; gusts up to 28 km/h; Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Rain during the meeting: 0 mm; Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Rain in the 24 hours before: 1.3 mm; Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
Humidity: 76 %; Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

	Points		Balance
1–4	15	9	+6	−6
5–7	9	9	0	0
8–10	12	6	+6	−6
11–13	10	8	+2	−2
14–15	5	7	−2	+2
	LES	GOR	LES	GOR

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

Lead LES

Heat	Lead	Home win chance
1	+4	85 %
2	+2	77 %
3	+2	77 %
4	+6	90 %
5	+10	96 %
6	+6	88 %
7	+6	90 %
8	+10	98 %
9	+10	97 %
10	+12	100 %
11	+16	100 %
12	+14	100 %
13	+14	100 %
14	+12	100 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

Rider	heats	Expected	Scored	±
Piotr Pawlicki	4	4.4	10	+5.6
Damian Baliński	4	5.0	10	+5.0
Kamil Adamczewski	4	2.4	7	+4.6
Tobiasz Musielak	4	3.7	7	+3.3
Bartosz Zmarzlik	4	7.2	9	+1.8
Jurica Pavlic	5	7.5	9	+1.5
Krzysztof Kasprzak	5	7.7	7	-0.7
Troy Batchelor	4	4.8	4	-0.8
Niels Kristian Iversen	6	14.3	13	-1.3
Adrian Cyfer	3	2.0	0	-2.0
Michael Jepsen Jensen	3	5.7	2	-3.7
Matej Zagar	4	6.8	3	-3.8
Przemysław Pawlicki	5	8.1	4	-4.1
Tomasz Gollob	5	10.5	5	-5.5

Track & gates

Heat times

Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.

slower 62.2560.90 faster

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside A + B 33.3:22.7 outside C + D

Trend ◀ +1.27 towards the inside

Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Full results at the source