OST vs POZ
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, June 22, 2024 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Chris Holder3 2 2 2 2 314+2
- 10Tobiasz Musielak2 3 3 1 W9
- 11Wiktor Jasinski0 W 33
- 12Frederik Jakobsen1 1 3 1 06+2
- 13Gleb Chugunov0 1 3 0 37
- 14Tobiasz Potasznik1 01+1
- 15Sebastian Szostak2 0 0 13
- 1Matias Nielsen2 3 1 3 211
- 2Szymon Szlauderbach2 2 0 2 17+3
- 3Ryan Douglas1 3 2 2 210+2
- 4Mateusz Dul3 0 1 04+1
- 5Oleksandr Loktayev3 1 1 3 19
- 6Kacper Grzelak3 1 26
- 7Kacper Teska0 0 00
Heat by heat
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Matias Nielsen · POZ2
- Ryan Douglas · POZ1*
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST0
- Kacper Grzelak · POZ3
- Sebastian Szostak · OST2
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST1*
- Kacper Teska · POZ0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ3
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ2*
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1
- Gleb Chugunov · OST0
- Mateusz Dul · POZ3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Kacper Grzelak · POZ1
- Tobiasz Potasznik · OST0
- Ryan Douglas · POZ3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1*
- Mateusz Dul · POZ0
- Matias Nielsen · POZ3
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ2*
- Gleb Chugunov · OST1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Chris Holder · OST2*
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ1
- Kacper Teska · POZ0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Ryan Douglas · POZ2
- Mateusz Dul · POZ1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Chris Holder · OST2*
- Matias Nielsen · POZ1
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ0
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST3
- Kacper Grzelak · POZ2
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ1
- Matias Nielsen · POZ3
- Chris Holder · OST2
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST1*
- Mateusz Dul · POZ0
- Wiktor Jasinski · OST3
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Kacper Teska · POZ0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ3
- Ryan Douglas · POZ2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST1
- Gleb Chugunov · OST0
- Gleb Chugunov · OST3
- Ryan Douglas · POZ2
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ1*
- Frederik Jakobsen · OST0
- Chris Holder · OST3
- Matias Nielsen · POZ2
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ1
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 22 → 21 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 24 km/h W
- gusts up to 39 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.3 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 67 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 9 | 15 | −6 | +6 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| OST | POZ | OST | POZ | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | -4 | 34 % |
| 4 | -6 | 23 % |
| 5 | -6 | 22 % |
| 6 | -10 | 8 % |
| 7 | -6 | 18 % |
| 8 | -6 | 16 % |
| 9 | -2 | 44 % |
| 10 | -2 | 36 % |
| 11 | -2 | 36 % |
| 12 | 0 | 57 % |
| 13 | -4 | 14 % |
| 14 | -4 | 8 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Nielsen | 5 | 7.4 | 11 | +3.6 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 3 | 2.9 | 6 | +3.1 |
| Chris Holder | 6 | 12.0 | 14 | +2.0 |
| Ryan Douglas | 5 | 8.1 | 10 | +1.9 |
| Mateusz Dul | 4 | 2.6 | 4 | +1.4 |
| Szymon Szlauderbach | 5 | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 |
| Oleksandr Loktayev | 5 | 8.2 | 9 | +0.8 |
| Wiktor Jasinski | 3 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 9.4 | 9 | -0.4 |
| Kacper Teska | 3 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Tobiasz Potasznik | 2 | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 |
| Gleb Chugunov | 5 | 9.3 | 7 | -2.3 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 4 | 6.1 | 3 | -3.1 |
| Frederik Jakobsen | 5 | 10.4 | 6 | -4.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.