POZ vs RZE
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, June 9, 2024 · Stadion Golęcin, Poznań
Results
- 9Matias Nielsen1 2 2 1 17
- 10Szymon Szlauderbach3 1 1 05+2
- 11Mateusz Dul0 1 W1
- 12Oleksandr Loktayev2 3 W 3 19+1
- 13Ryan Douglas3 2 3 3 314
- 14Kacper Teska1 1 0 13+1
- 15Kacper Grzelak3 1 2 06+1
- 1Marcin Nowak2 3 0 0 27+2
- 2Mateusz Świdnicki00
- 3Nicki Pedersen3 2 2 1 210+1
- 4Krystian Pieszczek0 W0
- 5Jacob Thorssell1 3 1 3 2 010+1
- 6Wiktor Rafalski2 2 0 26
- 7Jakub Poczta0 00
- 8Jesper Knudsen0 3 2 3 311
Heat by heat
- Nicki Pedersen · RZE3
- Marcin Nowak · RZE2*
- Matias Nielsen · POZ1
- Mateusz Dul · POZ0
- Kacper Grzelak · POZ3
- Wiktor Rafalski · RZE2
- Kacper Teska · POZ1
- Jakub Poczta · RZE0
- Ryan Douglas · POZ3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ2*
- Jacob Thorssell · RZE1
- Jesper Knudsen · RZE0
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ3
- Wiktor Rafalski · RZE2
- Kacper Teska · POZ1
- Krystian Pieszczek · RZE0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ3
- Nicki Pedersen · RZE2
- Mateusz Dul · POZ1
- Marcin Nowak · RZE3
- Ryan Douglas · POZ2
- Kacper Grzelak · POZ1*
- Mateusz Świdnicki · RZE0
- Jacob Thorssell · RZE3
- Matias Nielsen · POZ2
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ1*
- Wiktor Rafalski · RZE0
- Ryan Douglas · POZ3
- Nicki Pedersen · RZE2
- Jacob Thorssell · RZE1*
- Kacper Teska · POZ0
- Jesper Knudsen · RZE3
- Matias Nielsen · POZ2
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ1*
- Marcin Nowak · RZE0
- Jacob Thorssell · RZE3
- Wiktor Rafalski · RZE2
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ3
- Jesper Knudsen · RZE2
- Matias Nielsen · POZ1
- Marcin Nowak · RZE0
- Jesper Knudsen · RZE3
- Kacper Grzelak · POZ2
- Kacper Teska · POZ1*
- Jakub Poczta · RZE0
- Ryan Douglas · POZ3
- Jacob Thorssell · RZE2
- Nicki Pedersen · RZE1*
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ0
- Jesper Knudsen · RZE3
- Marcin Nowak · RZE2*
- Matias Nielsen · POZ1
- Kacper Grzelak · POZ0
- Ryan Douglas · POZ3
- Nicki Pedersen · RZE2
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ1
- Jacob Thorssell · RZE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 19 → 20 °C
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
- Wind
- 18 km/h W
- gusts up to 35 km/h
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 46 %
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 6 | 11 | −5 | +5 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| POZ | RZE | POZ | RZE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead POZ
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +1 | 70 % |
| 11 | +3 | 88 % |
| 12 | +3 | 86 % |
| 13 | +3 | 91 % |
| 14 | -1 | 56 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Knudsen | 5 | 5.1 | 11 | +5.9 |
| Ryan Douglas | 5 | 9.2 | 14 | +4.8 |
| Wiktor Rafalski | 4 | 4.6 | 6 | +1.4 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 4 | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 |
| Kacper Teska | 4 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Oleksandr Loktayev | 5 | 8.9 | 9 | +0.1 |
| Szymon Szlauderbach | 4 | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 |
| Nicki Pedersen | 5 | 10.8 | 10 | -0.8 |
| Mateusz Dul | 3 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Marcin Nowak | 5 | 8.0 | 7 | -1.0 |
| Mateusz Świdnicki | 1 | 1.1 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Jacob Thorssell | 6 | 11.6 | 10 | -1.6 |
| Jakub Poczta | 2 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Matias Nielsen | 5 | 9.8 | 7 | -2.8 |
| Krystian Pieszczek | 2 | 3.4 | 0 | -3.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.