POZ vs BYD
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Friday, June 7, 2024 · Stadion Golęcin, Poznań
Results
- 9Matias Nielsen2 1 3 0 39
- 10Szymon Szlauderbach2 3 2 U 07+1
- 11Mateusz Dul0 0 U0
- 12Oleksandr Loktayev1 3 2 3 09
- 13Ryan Douglas3 3 3 2 314
- 14Kacper Teska0 1 01+1
- 15Kacper Grzelak3 1 1 38+1
- 1Kai Huckenbeck1 W1
- 2Tim Sörensen2 2 1 27
- 3Mateusz Szczepaniak3 1 2 1 18+2
- 4Andreas Lyager3 2 1 2 2 212+1
- 5Krzysztof Buczkowski0 2 3 1 3 110+2
- 6Franciszek Karczewski1 01+1
- 7Olivier Buszkiewicz2 0 0 13
- 8Franciszek Majewski00
Heat by heat
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD3
- Matias Nielsen · POZ2
- Kai Huckenbeck · BYD1
- Mateusz Dul · POZ0
- Kacper Grzelak · POZ3
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD2
- Franciszek Karczewski · BYD1*
- Kacper Teska · POZ0
- Ryan Douglas · POZ3
- Tim Sörensen · BYD2
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ1
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD0
- Andreas Lyager · BYD3
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ2
- Kacper Teska · POZ1*
- Franciszek Majewski · BYD0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ3
- Andreas Lyager · BYD2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD1*
- Mateusz Dul · POZ0
- Ryan Douglas · POZ3
- Tim Sörensen · BYD2
- Kacper Grzelak · POZ1
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD2
- Matias Nielsen · POZ1
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD0
- Ryan Douglas · POZ3
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD2
- Andreas Lyager · BYD1*
- Kacper Teska · POZ0
- Matias Nielsen · POZ3
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ2*
- Tim Sörensen · BYD1
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ2
- Kacper Grzelak · POZ1*
- Franciszek Karczewski · BYD0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ3
- Andreas Lyager · BYD2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD1*
- Matias Nielsen · POZ0
- Kacper Grzelak · POZ3
- Tim Sörensen · BYD2
- Olivier Buszkiewicz · BYD1
- Mateusz Dul · POZU
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD3
- Ryan Douglas · POZ2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD1
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZU
- Matias Nielsen · POZ3
- Andreas Lyager · BYD2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · BYD1*
- Szymon Szlauderbach · POZ0
- Ryan Douglas · POZ3
- Andreas Lyager · BYD2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · BYD1*
- Oleksandr Loktayev · POZ0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 18 → 17 °C
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
- Wind
- 10 km/h N
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 4.7 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 62 %
- Measured · Poznan, 4 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| POZ | BYD | POZ | BYD | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead POZ
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | +2 | 74 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +6 | 96 % |
| 14 | +6 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Douglas | 5 | 8.6 | 14 | +5.4 |
| Kacper Grzelak | 4 | 3.3 | 8 | +4.7 |
| Andreas Lyager | 6 | 10.4 | 12 | +1.6 |
| Szymon Szlauderbach | 5 | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 |
| Oleksandr Loktayev | 5 | 8.5 | 9 | +0.5 |
| Matias Nielsen | 5 | 8.6 | 9 | +0.4 |
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 5 | 7.8 | 8 | +0.2 |
| Tim Sörensen | 4 | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 |
| Kacper Teska | 3 | 1.9 | 1 | -0.9 |
| Olivier Buszkiewicz | 4 | 4.2 | 3 | -1.2 |
| Franciszek Majewski | 1 | 1.4 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Franciszek Karczewski | 2 | 2.6 | 1 | -1.6 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 6 | 12.3 | 10 | -2.3 |
| Mateusz Dul | 3 | 2.5 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Kai Huckenbeck | 2 | 4.4 | 1 | -3.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.