ZIE vs LOD
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, June 3, 2023 · Zielona Góra Speedway Stadium, Zielona Góra
Results
- 9Przemysław Pawlicki3 3 3 312
- 10Rasmus Jensen3 1 2 3 312+1
- 11Rohan Tungate2 1 2 3 311+2
- 12Luke Becker1 0 3 15+1
- 13Krzysztof Buczkowski2 3 1 1 29+1
- 14Dawid Rempała3 1 04
- 15Michał Curzytek2 0 24+2
- 16Maksym Borowiak00
- 1Timo Lahti0 1 0 01+1
- 2Rune Holta0 2 1 1 04
- 3Tomasz Gapiński1 3 2 D 17+1
- 4Mateusz Tonder2 2 3 2 211+1
- 5Niels Kristian Iversen3 2 1 2 19+1
- 6Mateusz Dul1 0 01
- 7Aleksander Grygolec0 00
- 8Jakub Sroka00
Heat by heat
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE2*
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD1
- Timo Lahti · LOD0
- Dawid Rempała · ZIE3
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE2*
- Mateusz Dul · LOD1
- Aleksander Grygolec · LOD0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE2
- Luke Becker · ZIE1*
- Rune Holta · LOD0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD2
- Dawid Rempała · ZIE1
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD3
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD2*
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE1
- Luke Becker · ZIE0
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE3
- Rune Holta · LOD2
- Timo Lahti · LOD1*
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD2
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE1
- Aleksander Grygolec · LOD0
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD3
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD2*
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE1
- Dawid Rempała · ZIE0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE2*
- Rune Holta · LOD1
- Timo Lahti · LOD0
- Luke Becker · ZIE3
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE2*
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD1
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Przemysław Pawlicki · ZIE3
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD2
- Luke Becker · ZIE1
- Timo Lahti · LOD0
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE3
- Michał Curzytek · ZIE2*
- Rune Holta · LOD1
- Jakub Sroka · LOD0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD2
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE1
- Tomasz Gapiński · LODD
- Rohan Tungate · ZIE3
- Krzysztof Buczkowski · ZIE2*
- Tomasz Gapiński · LOD1
- Rune Holta · LOD0
- Rasmus Jensen · ZIE3
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD2
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD1*
- Maksym Borowiak · ZIE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 18 °C
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
- Wind
- 10 km/h NE
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 26 %
- Measured · Zielona Gora, 1 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 7 | +10 | −10 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| ZIE | LOD | ZIE | LOD | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead ZIE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +8 | 96 % |
| 3 | +8 | 94 % |
| 4 | +10 | 98 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +14 | 100 % |
| 12 | +18 | 100 % |
| 13 | +20 | 100 % |
| 14 | +24 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Tonder | 5 | 6.3 | 11 | +4.7 |
| Przemysław Pawlicki | 4 | 9.1 | 12 | +2.9 |
| Rohan Tungate | 5 | 9.0 | 11 | +2.0 |
| Rasmus Jensen | 5 | 10.2 | 12 | +1.8 |
| Dawid Rempała | 3 | 2.2 | 4 | +1.8 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 5 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| Michał Curzytek | 3 | 3.2 | 4 | +0.8 |
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 5 | 8.5 | 9 | +0.5 |
| Jakub Sroka | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Maksym Borowiak | 1 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 |
| Aleksander Grygolec | 2 | 1.4 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Krzysztof Buczkowski | 5 | 10.9 | 9 | -1.9 |
| Mateusz Dul | 3 | 3.3 | 1 | -2.3 |
| Rune Holta | 5 | 7.9 | 4 | -3.9 |
| Timo Lahti | 4 | 5.4 | 1 | -4.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.