OST vs LOD
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, May 6, 2023 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Oliver Berntzon00
- 10Grzegorz Walasek1 34
- 12Matias Nielsen1 01
- 13Tobiasz Musielak3 2 38
- 15Jakub Krawczyk3 D3
- 16Francis Gusts2 2 15
- 1Timo Lahti3 36
- 2Mateusz Tonder0 11
- 3Tom Brennan1 3 15
- 4Jakub Jamróg3 1 26
- 5Niels Kristian Iversen2 24
- 6Mateusz Dul2 24+1
- 7Aleksander GrygolecW0
- 8Jakub Sroka00
Heat by heat
- Timo Lahti · LOD3
- Francis Gusts · OST2
- Tom Brennan · LOD1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST0
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST3
- Mateusz Dul · LOD2
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD2
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD0
- Jakub Jamróg · LOD3
- Mateusz Dul · LOD2*
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Tom Brennan · LOD3
- Francis Gusts · OST2
- Jakub Jamróg · LOD1
- Matias Nielsen · OST0
- Timo Lahti · LOD3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OSTD
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD2
- Francis Gusts · OST1
- Jakub Sroka · LOD0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Jakub Jamróg · LOD2
- Tom Brennan · LOD1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST
- Timo Lahti · LOD
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD
- Victor Palovaara · OST
- Matias Nielsen · OST
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD
- Mateusz Dul · LOD
- Oliver Berntzon · OST
- Matias Nielsen · OST
- Timo Lahti · LOD
- Jakub Jamróg · LOD
- Victor Palovaara · OST
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD
- Aleksander Grygolec · LOD
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD
- Tom Brennan · LOD
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Drizzle
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 7 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 22 km/h NE
- gusts up to 37 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 1.3 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 12.5 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 100 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 10 | 13 | −3 | +3 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| OST | LOD | OST | LOD | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -1 | 64 % |
| 3 | +1 | 77 % |
| 4 | -3 | 46 % |
| 5 | -5 | 34 % |
| 6 | -7 | 24 % |
| 7 | -5 | 32 % |
| 8 | -5 | 35 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Dul | 3 | 3.0 | 4 | +1.0 |
| Francis Gusts | 3 | 4.2 | 5 | +0.8 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 4.7 | 5 | +0.3 |
| Jakub Jamróg | 4 | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 4 | 8.2 | 8 | -0.2 |
| Jakub Sroka | 1 | 0.4 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Timo Lahti | 4 | 6.9 | 6 | -0.9 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 3 | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 |
| Aleksander Grygolec | 2 | 1.7 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Jakub Poczta | 3 | 2.6 | 0 | -2.6 |
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 4 | 7.1 | 4 | -3.1 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 4 | 7.7 | 4 | -3.7 |
| Victor Palovaara | 2 | 3.8 | 0 | -3.8 |
| Mateusz Tonder | 4 | 5.1 | 1 | -4.1 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 3 | 5.1 | 0 | -5.1 |
| Matias Nielsen | 4 | 6.9 | 1 | -5.9 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.