LOD vs OST
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, July 16, 2023 · Moto Arena w Łodzi, Łódź
Results
- 9Timo Lahti3 1 3 0 29
- 10Rune Holta2 D 02
- 11Jakub Jamróg2 0 1 3 17+3
- 12Mateusz Tonder2 1 2 3 08
- 13Niels Kristian Iversen1 3 2 2 1 110+2
- 14Aleksander Grygolec0 11+1
- 15Mateusz Dul2 0 0 24+1
- 1Oliver Berntzon1 1 1 14+2
- 2Francis Gusts0 2 13
- 3Grzegorz Walasek0 2 3 3 210+2
- 4Matias Nielsen0 3 1 2 39
- 5Tobiasz Musielak3 3 3 2 314+1
- 6Sebastian Szostak3 3 06
- 7Jakub Krawczyk1 2 0 W 03+1
Heat by heat
- Timo Lahti · LOD3
- Jakub Jamróg · LOD2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Mateusz Dul · LOD2
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST1
- Aleksander Grygolec · LOD0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD2
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD1*
- Francis Gusts · OST0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Rune Holta · LOD2
- Aleksander Grygolec · LOD1*
- Matias Nielsen · OST0
- Matias Nielsen · OST3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2*
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD1
- Jakub Jamróg · LOD0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD3
- Francis Gusts · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1*
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST2*
- Timo Lahti · LOD1
- Rune Holta · LODD
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD2
- Matias Nielsen · OST1
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Timo Lahti · LOD3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD2
- Jakub Jamróg · LOD1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD3
- Matias Nielsen · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1*
- Timo Lahti · LOD0
- Jakub Jamróg · LOD3
- Mateusz Dul · LOD2*
- Francis Gusts · OST1
- Jakub Krawczyk · OSTW
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST2*
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD1
- Rune Holta · LOD0
- Matias Nielsen · OST3
- Timo Lahti · LOD2
- Jakub Jamróg · LOD1*
- Jakub Krawczyk · OST0
- Tobiasz Musielak · OST3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2*
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD1
- Mateusz Tonder · LOD0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 27 → 24 °C
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
- Wind
- 11 km/h W
- gusts up to 33 km/h
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 56 %
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 5 | 13 | −8 | +8 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| LOD | OST | LOD | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LOD
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | -2 | 47 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | -6 | 18 % |
| 8 | -8 | 12 % |
| 9 | -4 | 28 % |
| 10 | -4 | 22 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | 0 | 57 % |
| 13 | -4 | 14 % |
| 14 | -4 | 8 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 3.1 | 6 | +2.9 |
| Mateusz Tonder | 5 | 5.1 | 8 | +2.9 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 11.2 | 14 | +2.8 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 7.4 | 10 | +2.6 |
| Timo Lahti | 5 | 7.2 | 9 | +1.8 |
| Mateusz Dul | 4 | 3.6 | 4 | +0.4 |
| Matias Nielsen | 5 | 8.8 | 9 | +0.2 |
| Aleksander Grygolec | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Francis Gusts | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 6 | 11.3 | 10 | -1.3 |
| Jakub Jamróg | 5 | 8.3 | 7 | -1.3 |
| Rune Holta | 3 | 4.2 | 2 | -2.2 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 4 | 7.3 | 4 | -3.3 |
| Jakub Krawczyk | 5 | 7.4 | 3 | -4.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.