KRO vs LOD
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, September 4, 2022 · Stadion Miejski w Krośnie, Krosno
Results
- 9Tobiasz Musielak0 3 1 2 28+1
- 11Mateusz Szczepaniak2 1 1 26
- 12Vaclav Milik2 3 3 3 112+2
- 13Andzejs Lebedevs3 2 2 3 212
- 14Franciszek Karczewski1 2 03+1
- 15Krzysztof Sadurski2 0 13+1
- 16Keynan Rew3 1 0 2 06+1
- 2Norbert Kościuch00
- 3Niels Kristian Iversen3 2 1 1 0 310
- 4Marcin Nowak1 0 3 2 0 06+1
- 5Brady Kurtz1 2 2 1 17
- 6Mateusz Dul3 0 0 03
- 7Nikodem BartochW 00
- 8Luke Becker1 3 3 1 3 314
Heat by heat
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD3
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO2
- Luke Becker · LOD1
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO0
- Mateusz Dul · LOD3
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO2
- Franciszek Karczewski · KRO1
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Vaclav Milik · KRO2*
- Brady Kurtz · LOD1
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD0
- Keynan Rew · KRO3
- Franciszek Karczewski · KRO2*
- Marcin Nowak · LOD1
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO1
- Marcin Nowak · LOD0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD1
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Brady Kurtz · LOD2
- Keynan Rew · KRO1
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Marcin Nowak · LOD3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD1
- Franciszek Karczewski · KRO0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Marcin Nowak · LOD2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO1
- Keynan Rew · KRO0
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Brady Kurtz · LOD2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO1
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Vaclav Milik · KRO3
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO2*
- Luke Becker · LOD1
- Marcin Nowak · LOD0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO2
- Krzysztof Sadurski · KRO1*
- Nikodem Bartoch · LOD0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Keynan Rew · KRO2*
- Brady Kurtz · LOD1
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO2
- Brady Kurtz · LOD1
- Keynan Rew · KRO0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · LOD3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2
- Vaclav Milik · KRO1*
- Marcin Nowak · LOD0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 19 → 20 °C
- Measured · Krosno / Bia?obrzegi, 2 km away
- Wind
- 8 km/h E
- gusts up to 15 km/h
- Measured · Krosno / Bia?obrzegi, 2 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 54 %
- Measured · Krosno / Bia?obrzegi, 2 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 11–13 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| KRO | LOD | KRO | LOD | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead KRO
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +10 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaclav Milik | 5 | 8.3 | 12 | +3.7 |
| Andzejs Lebedevs | 5 | 9.4 | 12 | +2.6 |
| Luke Becker | 6 | 12.1 | 14 | +1.9 |
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 6 | 9.1 | 10 | +0.9 |
| Keynan Rew | 5 | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 |
| Krzysztof Sadurski | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| Mateusz Dul | 4 | 3.0 | 3 | -0.0 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.4 | 8 | -0.4 |
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 4 | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| Norbert Kościuch | 1 | 0.6 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Franciszek Karczewski | 3 | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 |
| Nikodem Bartoch | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Marcin Nowak | 6 | 8.5 | 6 | -2.5 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 10.7 | 7 | -3.7 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.