LOD vs OST
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, June 13, 2021 · Moto Arena w Łodzi, Łódź
Results
- 9Marcin Nowak3 2 3 0 08+1
- 11Norbert Kościuch1 1 3 3 19
- 12Brady Kurtz3 0 2 1 06+1
- 13Oleksandr Loktayev0 2 2 04
- 14Jakub Sroka1 0 01
- 15Mateusz Dul3 0 25+1
- 16Luke Becker3 3 1 1 311
- 1Nicolai Klindt0 1 01
- 2Daniel Kaczmarek11
- 3Grzegorz Walasek2 3 1 2 2 313+2
- 4Tomasz Gapiński2 2 3 3 212+2
- 5Oliver Berntzon1 1 1 25+1
- 6Sebastian SzostakW 1 01+1
- 7Jakub Poczta2 0 02
- 8Patrick Hansen2 3 2 3 111+1
Heat by heat
- Marcin Nowak · LOD3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD1
- Nicolai Klindt · OST0
- Mateusz Dul · LOD3
- Jakub Poczta · OST2
- Jakub Sroka · LOD1
- Brady Kurtz · LOD3
- Patrick Hansen · OST2
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1*
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1*
- Jakub Sroka · LOD0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2*
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD1
- Brady Kurtz · LOD0
- Patrick Hansen · OST3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD2
- Nicolai Klindt · OST1
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Marcin Nowak · LOD2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Jakub Poczta · OST0
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1
- Jakub Sroka · LOD0
- Marcin Nowak · LOD3
- Patrick Hansen · OST2
- Luke Becker · LOD1
- Nicolai Klindt · OST0
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD3
- Brady Kurtz · LOD2*
- Oliver Berntzon · OST1
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2*
- Brady Kurtz · LOD1
- Marcin Nowak · LOD0
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD3
- Mateusz Dul · LOD2*
- Daniel Kaczmarek · OST1
- Jakub Poczta · OST0
- Patrick Hansen · OST3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2*
- Luke Becker · LOD1
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Patrick Hansen · OST1*
- Brady Kurtz · LOD0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2*
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD1
- Marcin Nowak · LOD0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 17 → 19 °C
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
- Wind
- 25 km/h NW
- gusts up to 48 km/h
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 9 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 49 %
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| LOD | OST | LOD | OST | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LOD
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +2 | 68 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +2 | 74 % |
| 14 | +2 | 77 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Hansen | 5 | 6.3 | 11 | +4.7 |
| Luke Becker | 5 | 7.3 | 11 | +3.7 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 5 | 9.0 | 12 | +3.0 |
| Marcin Nowak | 5 | 5.5 | 8 | +2.5 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 6 | 10.9 | 13 | +2.1 |
| Mateusz Dul | 3 | 3.2 | 5 | +1.8 |
| Norbert Kościuch | 5 | 7.7 | 9 | +1.3 |
| Daniel Kaczmarek | 1 | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Jakub Sroka | 3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| Jakub Poczta | 3 | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 3.4 | 1 | -2.4 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 8.4 | 6 | -2.4 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 4 | 7.6 | 5 | -2.6 |
| Oleksandr Loktayev | 4 | 7.5 | 4 | -3.5 |
| Nicolai Klindt | 3 | 5.6 | 1 | -4.6 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.