LOD vs TAR
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Saturday, April 10, 2021 · Moto Arena w Łodzi, Łódź
Results
- 9Marcin Nowak1 2 2 2 29+3
- 10Luke Becker3 1 3 07+1
- 11Norbert Kościuch2 2 1 3 08+2
- 12Brady Kurtz2 3 2 3 313
- 13Oleksandr Loktayev1 2 2 3 19+1
- 14Jakub Sroka1 1 02+1
- 15Mateusz Dul2 0 02
- 1Ernest Koza3 1 1 1 28
- 3Artur Mroczka0 1 3 0 1 38+1
- 4Alexander Woentin2 0 1 1 04
- 5Rohan Tungate3 3 3 3 2 216
- 6Dawid Rempała3 0 0 03
- 7Piotr Świercz0 0 0 11+1
Heat by heat
- Ernest Koza · TAR3
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD2
- Marcin Nowak · LOD1*
- Artur Mroczka · TAR0
- Dawid Rempała · TAR3
- Mateusz Dul · LOD2
- Jakub Sroka · LOD1*
- Piotr Świercz · TAR0
- Rohan Tungate · TAR3
- Brady Kurtz · LOD2
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD1*
- Piotr Świercz · TAR0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Alexander Woentin · TAR2
- Jakub Sroka · LOD1
- Dawid Rempała · TAR0
- Brady Kurtz · LOD3
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD2*
- Artur Mroczka · TAR1
- Alexander Woentin · TAR0
- Rohan Tungate · TAR3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD2
- Ernest Koza · TAR1
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Rohan Tungate · TAR3
- Marcin Nowak · LOD2
- Luke Becker · LOD1*
- Piotr Świercz · TAR0
- Artur Mroczka · TAR3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD2
- Alexander Woentin · TAR1
- Jakub Sroka · LOD0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Marcin Nowak · LOD2*
- Ernest Koza · TAR1
- Dawid Rempała · TAR0
- Rohan Tungate · TAR3
- Brady Kurtz · LOD2
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD1*
- Dawid Rempała · TAR0
- Brady Kurtz · LOD3
- Marcin Nowak · LOD2*
- Ernest Koza · TAR1
- Artur Mroczka · TAR0
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD3
- Ernest Koza · TAR2
- Piotr Świercz · TAR1*
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD3
- Rohan Tungate · TAR2
- Artur Mroczka · TAR1*
- Luke Becker · LOD0
- Artur Mroczka · TAR3
- Marcin Nowak · LOD2
- Alexander Woentin · TAR1
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD0
- Brady Kurtz · LOD3
- Rohan Tungate · TAR2
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD1
- Alexander Woentin · TAR0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 14 → 10 °C
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
- Wind
- 9 km/h NW
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 50 %
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| LOD | TAR | LOD | TAR | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LOD
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +10 | 97 % |
| 12 | +10 | 98 % |
| 13 | +10 | 100 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 8.7 | 13 | +4.3 |
| Rohan Tungate | 6 | 12.5 | 16 | +3.5 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 |
| Ernest Koza | 5 | 6.8 | 8 | +1.2 |
| Marcin Nowak | 5 | 8.8 | 9 | +0.2 |
| Dawid Rempała | 4 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| Mateusz Dul | 3 | 2.6 | 2 | -0.6 |
| Alexander Woentin | 5 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| Oleksandr Loktayev | 5 | 10.1 | 9 | -1.1 |
| Norbert Kościuch | 5 | 9.2 | 8 | -1.2 |
| Artur Mroczka | 6 | 9.2 | 8 | -1.2 |
| Jakub Sroka | 3 | 4.8 | 2 | -2.8 |
| Piotr Świercz | 4 | 4.8 | 1 | -3.8 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.