LOD vs KRO
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, July 18, 2021 · Moto Arena w Łodzi, Łódź
Results
- 9Marcin Nowak0 2 1 14+2
- 10Oleksandr Loktayev3 3 2 2 010+1
- 11Norbert Kościuch2 3 1 3 110+1
- 13Brady Kurtz2 2 3 3 111+1
- 14Jakub Sroka2 1 03+1
- 15Mateusz Dul3 0 D 03
- 16Luke Becker3 2 2 310+1
- 1Tobiasz Musielak3 3 3 2 3 317
- 2Mateusz Szczepaniak0 1 01
- 3Vaclav Milik1 1 2 2 0 28+1
- 4Patryk Wojdyło2 0 13+1
- 5Andzejs Lebedevs1 1 3 0 1 28+1
- 6Bartosz Curzytek1 0 0 12
- 7Aleks Rydlewski0 00
Heat by heat
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD2
- Vaclav Milik · KRO1
- Marcin Nowak · LOD0
- Mateusz Dul · LOD3
- Jakub Sroka · LOD2*
- Bartosz Curzytek · KRO1
- Aleks Rydlewski · KRO0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Brady Kurtz · LOD2*
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO1
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD3
- Patryk Wojdyło · KRO2
- Jakub Sroka · LOD1
- Bartosz Curzytek · KRO0
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD3
- Luke Becker · LOD2*
- Vaclav Milik · KRO1
- Patryk Wojdyło · KRO0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Brady Kurtz · LOD2
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO1
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD3
- Marcin Nowak · LOD2*
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO1
- Aleks Rydlewski · KRO0
- Brady Kurtz · LOD3
- Vaclav Milik · KRO2
- Patryk Wojdyło · KRO1*
- Jakub Sroka · LOD0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD2
- Marcin Nowak · LOD1*
- Mateusz Szczepaniak · KRO0
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO3
- Luke Becker · LOD2
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD1*
- Bartosz Curzytek · KRO0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO2
- Marcin Nowak · LOD1
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO0
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD3
- Vaclav Milik · KRO2
- Bartosz Curzytek · KRO1
- Mateusz Dul · LODD
- Brady Kurtz · LOD3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD2*
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO1
- Vaclav Milik · KRO0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Vaclav Milik · KRO2*
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD1
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Tobiasz Musielak · KRO3
- Andzejs Lebedevs · KRO2*
- Brady Kurtz · LOD1
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 26 → 27 °C
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
- Wind
- 14 km/h NW
- gusts up to 28 km/h
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 4.3 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 55 %
- Measured · Lodz, 4 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 16 | 8 | +8 | −8 | |
| 5–7 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 14–15 | 2 | 10 | −8 | +8 | |
| LOD | KRO | LOD | KRO | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LOD
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +8 | 93 % |
| 5 | +12 | 97 % |
| 6 | +10 | 97 % |
| 7 | +14 | 100 % |
| 8 | +14 | 100 % |
| 9 | +14 | 100 % |
| 10 | +14 | 99 % |
| 11 | +16 | 100 % |
| 12 | +16 | 100 % |
| 13 | +20 | 100 % |
| 14 | +16 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobiasz Musielak | 6 | 12.6 | 17 | +4.4 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 6.1 | 10 | +3.9 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 8.2 | 11 | +2.8 |
| Norbert Kościuch | 5 | 7.8 | 10 | +2.2 |
| Oleksandr Loktayev | 5 | 9.4 | 10 | +0.6 |
| Jakub Sroka | 3 | 2.4 | 3 | +0.6 |
| Marcin Nowak | 4 | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 |
| Mateusz Dul | 4 | 3.8 | 3 | -0.8 |
| Patryk Wojdyło | 3 | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 |
| Bartosz Curzytek | 4 | 3.5 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Aleks Rydlewski | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Mateusz Szczepaniak | 3 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Vaclav Milik | 6 | 10.9 | 8 | -2.9 |
| Andzejs Lebedevs | 6 | 11.4 | 8 | -3.4 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.