OST vs LOD
Metalkas 2. Ekstraliga · Sunday, June 20, 2021 · Stadion Miejski w Ostrowie Wlkp., Ostrów Wielkopolski
Results
- 9Nicolai Klindt2 1 2 2 29
- 10Tomasz Gapiński2 3 1 06+1
- 11Grzegorz Walasek1 3 3 3 212+1
- 13Oliver Berntzon2 3 W 2 07+1
- 14Jakub Poczta0 1 12+1
- 15Sebastian Szostak3 0 14
- 16Patrick Hansen3 1 W 1 05+1
- 1Marcin Nowak3 1 0 04+1
- 2Brady KurtzW 2 3 T 3 311
- 3Norbert Kościuch0 2 2 1 38+1
- 5Oleksandr Loktayev1 2 2 16
- 6Mateusz Dul1 0 1 24+1
- 7Jakub Sroka2 0 02
- 8Luke Becker3 0 3 3 110
Heat by heat
- Marcin Nowak · LOD3
- Nicolai Klindt · OST2
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST1*
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD0
- Sebastian Szostak · OST3
- Jakub Sroka · LOD2
- Mateusz Dul · LOD1*
- Jakub Poczta · OST0
- Patrick Hansen · OST3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2*
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD1
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST2
- Jakub Poczta · OST1*
- Mateusz Dul · LOD0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD2
- Patrick Hansen · OST1
- Luke Becker · LOD0
- Oliver Berntzon · OST3
- Brady Kurtz · LOD2
- Marcin Nowak · LOD1*
- Sebastian Szostak · OST0
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD2
- Nicolai Klindt · OST1
- Jakub Sroka · LOD0
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD2*
- Jakub Poczta · OST1
- Brady Kurtz · LOD3
- Nicolai Klindt · OST2
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST1*
- Marcin Nowak · LOD0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD2
- Mateusz Dul · LOD1
- Luke Becker · LOD3
- Nicolai Klindt · OST2
- Patrick Hansen · OST1*
- Marcin Nowak · LOD0
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST3
- Mateusz Dul · LOD2
- Sebastian Szostak · OST1
- Jakub Sroka · LOD0
- Brady Kurtz · LOD3
- Oliver Berntzon · OST2
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD1
- Tomasz Gapiński · OST0
- Norbert Kościuch · LOD3
- Nicolai Klindt · OST2
- Luke Becker · LOD1
- Patrick Hansen · OST0
- Brady Kurtz · LOD3
- Grzegorz Walasek · OST2
- Oleksandr Loktayev · LOD1
- Oliver Berntzon · OST0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 30 → 27 °C
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Wind
- 13 km/h E
- gusts up to 24 km/h
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (ERA5 reanalysis)
- Humidity
- 41 %
- Measured · Kalisz, 21 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers; contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026; CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| OST | LOD | OST | LOD | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead OST
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +4 | 83 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +4 | 91 % |
| 14 | +2 | 77 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 8.0 | 11 | +3.0 |
| Grzegorz Walasek | 5 | 10.1 | 12 | +1.9 |
| Nicolai Klindt | 5 | 7.8 | 9 | +1.2 |
| Norbert Kościuch | 5 | 7.1 | 8 | +0.9 |
| Luke Becker | 5 | 9.1 | 10 | +0.9 |
| Sebastian Szostak | 3 | 3.5 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Mateusz Dul | 4 | 4.3 | 4 | -0.3 |
| Jakub Sroka | 3 | 2.4 | 2 | -0.4 |
| Marcin Nowak | 4 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| Oleksandr Loktayev | 4 | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 |
| Oliver Berntzon | 5 | 8.2 | 7 | -1.2 |
| Jakub Poczta | 3 | 3.2 | 2 | -1.2 |
| Tomasz Gapiński | 4 | 7.8 | 6 | -1.8 |
| Patrick Hansen | 5 | 6.9 | 5 | -1.9 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.