LEI vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, April 17, 2025 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke0 2 2 26+3
- 2Luke Becker1 3 3 3 212
- 3Ryan Douglas2 2 0 15
- 4Kyle Howarth1 1 2 15+2
- 5Sam Masters2 3 1 3 110+1
- 6Drew Kemp3 0 0 0 03
- 7Sam Hagon0 0 00
- 1Jason Doyle3 3 3 0 R9
- 2Danny King2 0 2 26+2
- 3Adam EllisF 1 1 35+1
- 4Tom Brennan3 2 0 38
- 5Emil Sajfutdinow3 1 3 1 311
- 6Dan Thompson2 0 1 25+1
- 7Jordan Jenkins1 1 1 25+3
Heat by heat
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Danny King · IPW2*
- Luke Becker · LEI1
- Max Fricke · LEI0
- Drew Kemp · LEI3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW1*
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Tom Brennan · IPW3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Kyle Howarth · LEI1*
- Adam Ellis · IPWF
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Sam Masters · LEI2
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW1
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Kyle Howarth · LEI1*
- Danny King · IPW0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Tom Brennan · IPW2
- Adam Ellis · IPW1*
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW1*
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Kyle Howarth · LEI2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Ryan Douglas · LEI0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Adam Ellis · IPW1
- Tom Brennan · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Danny King · IPW2*
- Sam Masters · LEI1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Adam Ellis · IPW3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2*
- Ryan Douglas · LEI1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1
- Jason Doyle · IPW0
- Tom Brennan · IPW3
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW2*
- Kyle Howarth · LEI1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Luke Becker · LEI2
- Sam Masters · LEI1*
- Jason Doyle · IPWR
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 13 → 11 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 6 km/h NE
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 50 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 9 | 15 | −6 | +6 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| LEI | IPW | LEI | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -4 | 37 % |
| 3 | -4 | 34 % |
| 4 | -6 | 23 % |
| 5 | -6 | 22 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | -2 | 46 % |
| 8 | -2 | 48 % |
| 9 | -4 | 28 % |
| 10 | 0 | 56 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | -8 | 7 % |
| 13 | -4 | 14 % |
| 14 | -8 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Becker | 5 | 7.7 | 12 | +4.3 |
| Sam Masters | 5 | 7.6 | 10 | +2.4 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 7.1 | 8 | +0.9 |
| Danny King | 4 | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 10.8 | 11 | +0.2 |
| Jordan Jenkins | 4 | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 |
| Adam Ellis | 4 | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 |
| Dan Thompson | 4 | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 7.1 | 6 | -1.1 |
| Drew Kemp | 5 | 4.2 | 3 | -1.2 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 10.4 | 9 | -1.4 |
| Sam Hagon | 3 | 1.4 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Ryan Douglas | 4 | 6.8 | 5 | -1.8 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.