LEI vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, October 6, 2025 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke2 3 2 2 312
- 2Luke Becker1 1 3 05+1
- 3Ryan Douglas3 1 3 2 211+1
- 4Kyle Howarth2 0 1 25+1
- 5Sam Masters1 3 2 17+1
- 6Drew Kemp3 0 R 0 R3
- 7Joe Thompson0 0 00
- 1Emil Sajfutdinow3 2 3 3 XD11+1
- 2Danny King0 3 1 15+1
- 3Tom Brennan1 2 3 39
- 4Adam EllisFD IRR IRR IRR0
- 5Jason Doyle3 2 2 0 18
- 6Dan Thompson1 2 1 FD 1 38+3
- 7Jason Edwards2 0 2 1 16
Heat by heat
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Luke Becker · LEI1*
- Danny King · IPW0
- Drew Kemp · LEI3
- Jason Edwards · IPW2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1*
- Joe Thompson · LEI0
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Kyle Howarth · LEI2*
- Tom Brennan · IPW1
- Adam Ellis · IPWFD
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2*
- Sam Masters · LEI1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2*
- Ryan Douglas · LEI1
- Kyle Howarth · LEI0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Luke Becker · LEI1
- Jason Edwards · IPW0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Tom Brennan · IPW2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1*
- Joe Thompson · LEI0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Jason Edwards · IPW2
- Danny King · IPW1*
- Joe Thompson · LEI0
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Kyle Howarth · LEI1
- Dan Thompson · IPWFD
- Tom Brennan · IPW3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Jason Edwards · IPW1
- Luke Becker · LEI0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Sam Masters · LEI2
- Danny King · IPW1
- Drew Kemp · LEIR
- Tom Brennan · IPW3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Sam Masters · LEI1*
- Jason Doyle · IPW0
- Dan Thompson · IPW3
- Kyle Howarth · LEI2
- Jason Edwards · IPW1
- Drew Kemp · LEIR
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2*
- Jason Doyle · IPW1
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPWXD
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Clear → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 17 → 15 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 14 km/h SW
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 81 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| LEI | IPW | LEI | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | -4 | 34 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | -2 | 46 % |
| 8 | -2 | 48 % |
| 9 | 0 | 56 % |
| 10 | -2 | 36 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | -6 | 6 % |
| 13 | -6 | 4 % |
| 14 | -8 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Douglas | 5 | 8.6 | 11 | +2.4 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 10.0 | 12 | +2.0 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 9.2 | 11 | +1.8 |
| Jason Edwards | 5 | 4.2 | 6 | +1.8 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 7.5 | 9 | +1.5 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 |
| Sam Masters | 4 | 6.9 | 7 | +0.1 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 |
| Dan Thompson | 6 | 9.0 | 8 | -1.0 |
| Adam Ellis | 1 | 1.2 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Joe Thompson | 3 | 1.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Danny King | 4 | 6.3 | 5 | -1.3 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 10.0 | 8 | -2.0 |
| Drew Kemp | 5 | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 |
Track & gates
Heat times
Winning time of every heat, four heats per row: darker is faster. On the right the row average and its change from the first row show how the track got faster or slower.
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.