BVA vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, September 16, 2024 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Brady Kurtz3 3 2 19+1
- 2Norick Blödorn1 2 2 05+2
- 3Jaimon Lidsey1 2 3 3 211+2
- 4Benjamin Cook2 0 1 25
- 5Dan Bewley3 2 2 2 312
- 6Antti Vuolas3 0 1 15+2
- 7Jake Mulford0 1 3 04+1
- 1Jack Holder2 3 3 3 112
- 2Kyle Howarth0 1 1 02
- 3Chris Holder3 3 3 2 011
- 4Joshua Pickering0 R 1 34
- 5Chris Harris2 1 2 05
- 6Jason Edwards2 0 02
- 7Daniel Gilkes1 1 0 1 03+3
Heat by heat
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Antti Vuolas · BVA3
- Jason Edwards · SHE2
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Chris Holder · SHE3
- Benjamin Cook · BVA2
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA1*
- Joshua Pickering · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Chris Harris · SHE2
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE1*
- Antti Vuolas · BVA0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Benjamin Cook · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Chris Harris · SHE1
- Jason Edwards · SHE0
- Chris Holder · SHE3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Jake Mulford · BVA1*
- Joshua Pickering · SHER
- Jake Mulford · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Chris Harris · SHE2
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1
- Jason Edwards · SHE0
- Chris Holder · SHE3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Joshua Pickering · SHE1
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Antti Vuolas · BVA1*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Chris Holder · SHE2
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1*
- Chris Harris · SHE0
- Joshua Pickering · SHE3
- Benjamin Cook · BVA2
- Antti Vuolas · BVA1*
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2*
- Jack Holder · SHE1
- Chris Holder · SHE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 17 → 12 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 4 km/h E
- gusts up to 17 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 80 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| BVA | SHE | BVA | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +10 | 97 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaimon Lidsey | 5 | 6.6 | 11 | +4.4 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 9.0 | 12 | +3.0 |
| Jake Mulford | 4 | 2.1 | 4 | +1.9 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 9.7 | 11 | +1.3 |
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 10.8 | 12 | +1.2 |
| Antti Vuolas | 4 | 4.3 | 5 | +0.7 |
| Brady Kurtz | 4 | 8.6 | 9 | +0.4 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.8 | 5 | +0.2 |
| Chris Harris | 4 | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 |
| Jason Edwards | 3 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.9 |
| Daniel Gilkes | 5 | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 5.0 | 2 | -3.0 |
| Joshua Pickering | 4 | 7.4 | 4 | -3.4 |
| Benjamin Cook | 4 | 8.6 | 5 | -3.6 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.