LEI vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, September 12, 2024 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke2 1 2 3 3 213+3
- 2Richard Lawson3 3 2 2 111+1
- 3Sam Masters1 3 1 E 3 311+1
- 4Luke Becker2 2 3 XO 18+2
- 6Lewis Kerr2 0 1 1 1 27
- 7Sam Hagon0 FD 11+1
- 1Jan KvechFD R 2 24
- 2Danny King1 1 0 FD2
- 3Keynan RewXO 3 FD FD3
- 4Tom Brennan3 2 3 3 011+1
- 5Adam Ellis1 3 2 1 18+2
- 6Ashton Boughen3 0 03
- 7Dan Thompson1 2 3 2 08
Heat by heat
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Jan Kvech · IPWFD
- Ashton Boughen · IPW3
- Lewis Kerr · LEI2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Tom Brennan · IPW3
- Luke Becker · LEI2
- Sam Masters · LEI1*
- Keynan Rew · IPWXO
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2
- Adam Ellis · IPW1*
- Lewis Kerr · LEI0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Luke Becker · LEI2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Jan Kvech · IPWR
- Adam Ellis · IPW3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Max Fricke · LEI1*
- Ashton Boughen · IPW0
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Tom Brennan · IPW2*
- Sam Masters · LEI1
- Sam Hagon · LEIFD
- Dan Thompson · IPW3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Sam Hagon · LEI1*
- Danny King · IPW0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Adam Ellis · IPW2
- Lewis Kerr · LEI1
- Ashton Boughen · IPW0
- Tom Brennan · IPW3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1*
- Keynan Rew · IPWFD
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Jan Kvech · IPW2
- Lewis Kerr · LEI1
- Danny King · IPWFD
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2
- Lewis Kerr · LEI1
- Keynan Rew · IPWFD
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Jan Kvech · IPW2
- Adam Ellis · IPW1*
- Luke Becker · LEIXO
- Tom Brennan · IPW3
- Lewis Kerr · LEI2
- Luke Becker · LEI1*
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Adam Ellis · IPW1
- Tom Brennan · IPW0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Clear
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 11 → 9 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 6 km/h NW
- gusts up to 17 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.9 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 69 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| LEI | IPW | LEI | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brennan | 5 | 7.7 | 11 | +3.3 |
| Adam Ellis | 5 | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 |
| Dan Thompson | 5 | 5.9 | 8 | +2.1 |
| Sam Masters | 5 | 9.4 | 11 | +1.6 |
| Richard Lawson | 5 | 10.0 | 11 | +1.0 |
| Ashton Boughen | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| Max Fricke | 6 | 13.1 | 13 | -0.1 |
| Sam Hagon | 3 | 1.3 | 1 | -0.3 |
| Lewis Kerr | 6 | 8.0 | 7 | -1.0 |
| Luke Becker | 5 | 9.6 | 8 | -1.6 |
| Jan Kvech | 4 | 6.0 | 4 | -2.0 |
| Keynan Rew | 4 | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 |
| Danny King | 4 | 5.2 | 2 | -3.2 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.