IPW vs LEI
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, September 9, 2024 · Foxhall Stadium, Ipswich
Results
- 1Jan Kvech3 2 3 1 110+1
- 2Adam Ellis1 1 2 26+2
- 3Keynan Rew2 3 0 27+1
- 4Tom Brennan3 0 3 3 09
- 5Danny King3 3 1 29
- 6Ashton Boughen1 1 0 13+1
- 7Dan Thompson2 2 1 05+2
- 1Max Fricke0 1 1 3 3 210+2
- 2Richard Lawson2 2 3 2 09+1
- 3Sam MastersR 3 0 1 3 310
- 4Luke Becker1 2 1 0 26+1
- 6Lewis Kerr3 0 2 1 06
- 7Sam Hagon0 0 00
Heat by heat
- Jan Kvech · IPW3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Adam Ellis · IPW1
- Max Fricke · LEI0
- Lewis Kerr · LEI3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2
- Ashton Boughen · IPW1*
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Tom Brennan · IPW3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2*
- Luke Becker · LEI1
- Sam Masters · LEIR
- Danny King · IPW3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2*
- Ryan Douglas · LEI1
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Max Fricke · LEI1*
- Tom Brennan · IPW0
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Jan Kvech · IPW2
- Adam Ellis · IPW1*
- Lewis Kerr · LEI0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Luke Becker · LEI2
- Ashton Boughen · IPW1
- Sam Masters · LEI0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Adam Ellis · IPW2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1*
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Tom Brennan · IPW3
- Lewis Kerr · LEI2
- Ryan Douglas · LEI1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Jan Kvech · IPW3
- Adam Ellis · IPW2*
- Sam Masters · LEI1
- Luke Becker · LEI0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Ashton Boughen · IPW0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2
- Lewis Kerr · LEI1
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Jan Kvech · IPW1*
- Ryan Douglas · LEI0
- Tom Brennan · IPW3
- Luke Becker · LEI2
- Ashton Boughen · IPW1
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Jan Kvech · IPW1
- Tom Brennan · IPW0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Rain → Clear
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Temperature
- 14 → 10 °C
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Wind
- 12 km/h W
- gusts up to 27 km/h
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.4 mm
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Humidity
- 88 %
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 17 | 7 | +10 | −10 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 6 | 12 | −6 | +6 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| IPW | LEI | IPW | LEI | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead IPW
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +6 | 90 % |
| 4 | +10 | 98 % |
| 5 | +10 | 96 % |
| 6 | +10 | 97 % |
| 7 | +12 | 99 % |
| 8 | +12 | 98 % |
| 9 | +12 | 99 % |
| 10 | +16 | 100 % |
| 11 | +12 | 100 % |
| 12 | +10 | 98 % |
| 13 | +10 | 100 % |
| 14 | +12 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny King | 4 | 5.4 | 9 | +3.6 |
| Jan Kvech | 5 | 7.3 | 10 | +2.7 |
| Adam Ellis | 4 | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| Tom Brennan | 5 | 7.4 | 9 | +1.6 |
| Keynan Rew | 4 | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 |
| Richard Lawson | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | +1.3 |
| Lewis Kerr | 4 | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 |
| Ashton Boughen | 4 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| Dan Thompson | 4 | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 10.8 | 9 | -1.8 |
| Sam Hagon | 4 | 2.2 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Sam Masters | 5 | 9.6 | 7 | -2.6 |
| Ryan Douglas | 4 | 7.8 | 5 | -2.8 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 8.3 | 5 | -3.3 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.