LEI vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, April 1, 2024 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke3 2 0 27
- 2Richard Lawson2 1 2 3 19+2
- 3Sam Masters3 3 1 3 010+1
- 4Luke Becker0 2 2 26+1
- 5Ryan Douglas1 3 2 17+1
- 6Drew Kemp1 0 0 1 13+1
- 7Joe Thompson0 0 00
- 1Emil Sajfutdinow1 1 3 3 311
- 2Jordan Jenkins0 0 11
- 3Danny King2 1 1 26+2
- 4Adam Ellis1 2 2 05+1
- 5Jason Doyle3 3 3 0 211+1
- 6Keynan Rew2 0 0 35+1
- 7Dan Thompson3 2 3 1 09+1
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2*
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW0
- Dan Thompson · IPW3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2*
- Drew Kemp · LEI1
- Joe Thompson · LEI0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Adam Ellis · IPW1*
- Luke Becker · LEI0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2*
- Ryan Douglas · LEI1
- Joe Thompson · LEI0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Luke Becker · LEI2*
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Adam Ellis · IPW2
- Danny King · IPW1*
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Dan Thompson · IPW3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW1
- Joe Thompson · LEI0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Luke Becker · LEI2
- Sam Masters · LEI1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Adam Ellis · IPW2
- Danny King · IPW1*
- Max Fricke · LEI0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Drew Kemp · LEI1
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Ryan Douglas · LEI1*
- Jason Doyle · IPW0
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Luke Becker · LEI2
- Drew Kemp · LEI1*
- Adam Ellis · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2*
- Richard Lawson · LEI1
- Sam Masters · LEI0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Rain → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 10 → 9 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 14 km/h S
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 4.7 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 77 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 10 | 14 | −4 | +4 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| LEI | IPW | LEI | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | -4 | 38 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | -2 | 48 % |
| 9 | -2 | 44 % |
| 10 | -2 | 36 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | -2 | 35 % |
| 13 | -2 | 33 % |
| 14 | -2 | 23 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Thompson | 5 | 5.5 | 9 | +3.5 |
| Sam Masters | 5 | 7.2 | 10 | +2.8 |
| Richard Lawson | 5 | 7.3 | 9 | +1.7 |
| Ryan Douglas | 4 | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 6.7 | 7 | +0.3 |
| Keynan Rew | 4 | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 11.4 | 11 | -0.4 |
| Adam Ellis | 4 | 5.9 | 5 | -0.9 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 12.2 | 11 | -1.2 |
| Jordan Jenkins | 3 | 2.3 | 1 | -1.3 |
| Joe Thompson | 3 | 1.4 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Drew Kemp | 5 | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 |
| Danny King | 4 | 7.9 | 6 | -1.9 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.