IPW vs LEI
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, August 15, 2024 · Foxhall Stadium, Ipswich
Results
- 2Adam EllisFD IRR IRR IRR0
- 3Scott Nicholls2 1 3 2 2 313
- 4Dan Thompson0 0 1 1 24
- 5Danny King1 3 2 0 1 FD7
- 6Keynan Rew3 FD 1 3 0 1 08+1
- 7Jordan Jenkins2 0 1 0 14+2
- 1Max Fricke3 2 2 310+2
- 2Richard Lawson2 3 2 3 212+1
- 3Sam Masters3 2 1 39+1
- 4Luke Becker1 3 3 3 111+1
- 5Ryan Douglas2 3 2 29+1
- 6Drew Kemp1 1 0 02
- 7Sam Hagon0 1 0 01+1
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2*
- Adam Ellis · IPWFD
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW2*
- Scott Nicholls · IPW2
- Drew Kemp · LEI1
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Danny King · IPW3
- Luke Becker · LEI1
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Sam Hagon · LEI1*
- Scott Nicholls · IPW1
- Keynan Rew · IPWFD
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW0
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Drew Kemp · LEI1
- Keynan Rew · IPW1
- Danny King · IPW0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Sam Masters · LEI2*
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW1
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Scott Nicholls · IPW3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Sam Masters · LEI1
- Danny King · IPW1
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Scott Nicholls · IPW2
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Keynan Rew · IPW1*
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Danny King · IPWFD
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2*
- Dan Thompson · IPW2
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW1*
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Scott Nicholls · IPW3
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Luke Becker · LEI1*
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Rain
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Temperature
- 21 → 19 °C
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Wind
- 24 km/h SW
- gusts up to 51 km/h
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.2 mm
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Humidity
- 79 %
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 26 | 34 | −8 | +8 | |
| 5–7 | 41 | 67 | −26 | +26 | |
| 8–10 | 48 | 66 | −18 | +18 | |
| 11–13 | 85 | 131 | −46 | +46 | |
| 14–15 | 69 | 105 | −36 | +36 | |
| IPW | LEI | IPW | LEI | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead IPW
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -4 | 45 % |
| 2 | -4 | 37 % |
| 3 | -6 | 32 % |
| 4 | -8 | 15 % |
| 5 | -14 | 0 % |
| 6 | -22 | 6 % |
| 7 | -34 | 4 % |
| 8 | -44 | 1 % |
| 9 | -42 | 1 % |
| 10 | -52 | 2 % |
| 11 | -66 | 1 % |
| 12 | -80 | 0 % |
| 13 | -98 | 0 % |
| 14 | -116 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Nicholls | 1 | 2.1 | 3 | +0.9 |
| Ryan Douglas | 3 | 7.5 | 8 | +0.5 |
| Richard Lawson | 5 | 13.2 | 13 | -0.2 |
| Max Fricke | 2 | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 |
| Sam Masters | 2 | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 |
| Drew Kemp | 3 | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 |
| Luke Becker | 3 | 8.1 | 6 | -2.1 |
| Dan Thompson | 2 | 3.2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| Adam Ellis | 1 | 2.3 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Sam Hagon | 2 | 4.4 | 2 | -2.4 |
| Danny King | 2 | 4.0 | 0 | -4.0 |
| Keynan Rew | 3 | 6.5 | 2 | -4.5 |
| Jordan Jenkins | 3 | 6.4 | 0 | -6.4 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.