BVA vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, April 1, 2024 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Brady Kurtz0 2 0 3 16+1
- 2Norick Blödorn3 0 3 39
- 3Jaimon Lidsey0 3 2 3 210
- 4Benjamin Cook3 2 1 17+2
- 5Dan Bewley2 1 2 05
- 6Connor Mountain3 0 0 36
- 7Connor Bailey2 1 2 16+3
- 1Jack Holder1 0 3 2 06+1
- 2Kyle Howarth2 1 1 15
- 3Chris Holder2 3 1 28+1
- 4Joshua Pickering1 2 2 27+2
- 5Tai Woffinden3 3 3 1 313+1
- 6Jason Edwards1 1 0 02
- 7Daniel Gilkes0 0 0 00
Heat by heat
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2
- Jack Holder · SHE1*
- Brady Kurtz · BVA0
- Connor Mountain · BVA3
- Connor Bailey · BVA2*
- Jason Edwards · SHE1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Benjamin Cook · BVA3
- Chris Holder · SHE2
- Joshua Pickering · SHE1*
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Tai Woffinden · SHE3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1*
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Benjamin Cook · BVA2*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Jack Holder · SHE0
- Tai Woffinden · SHE3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Jason Edwards · SHE1
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Chris Holder · SHE3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2*
- Dan Bewley · BVA1
- Connor Mountain · BVA0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Connor Bailey · BVA2*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Tai Woffinden · SHE3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1*
- Jason Edwards · SHE0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2
- Chris Holder · SHE1*
- Brady Kurtz · BVA0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Connor Mountain · BVA0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Chris Holder · SHE2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1
- Jason Edwards · SHE0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Tai Woffinden · SHE1*
- Dan Bewley · BVA0
- Connor Mountain · BVA3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Tai Woffinden · SHE3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1*
- Jack Holder · SHE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Drizzle
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 8 → 9 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 5 km/h SE
- gusts up to 15 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 3.6 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 5.5 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 89 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| BVA | SHE | BVA | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +6 | 89 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +6 | 96 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.2 | 9 | +4.8 |
| Tai Woffinden | 5 | 10.0 | 13 | +3.0 |
| Connor Bailey | 4 | 3.9 | 6 | +2.1 |
| Connor Mountain | 4 | 3.9 | 6 | +2.1 |
| Benjamin Cook | 4 | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 5 | 8.4 | 10 | +1.6 |
| Chris Holder | 4 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 |
| Joshua Pickering | 4 | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Jason Edwards | 4 | 3.3 | 2 | -1.3 |
| Dan Bewley | 4 | 8.4 | 5 | -3.4 |
| Daniel Gilkes | 4 | 3.4 | 0 | -3.4 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 9.8 | 6 | -3.8 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 10.7 | 6 | -4.7 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.