LEI vs BVA
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, July 25, 2024 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke3 FD 2 16+2
- 2Richard Lawson1 3 2 39
- 3Sam Masters3 2 2 3 313
- 4Luke Becker2 1 1 37+3
- 5Ryan Douglas3 1 1 27+1
- 6Craig Cook3 2 3 2 010+1
- 7Sam Hagon1 0 1 13+1
- 1Brady Kurtz2 3 3 2 0 212
- 2Norick Blödorn0 0 3 0 03
- 3Jaimon Lidsey0 2 F 0 24
- 4Benjamin Cook1 3 1 3 1 110+1
- 5Dan Bewley2 IRR IRR IRR2
- 6Antti Vuolas0 1 01+1
- 7Jake Mulford2 1 0 03+1
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Craig Cook · LEI3
- Jake Mulford · BVA2
- Sam Hagon · LEI1
- Antti Vuolas · BVA0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Luke Becker · LEI2*
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Jake Mulford · BVA1*
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Sam Masters · LEI2
- Luke Becker · LEI1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Antti Vuolas · BVA1*
- Max Fricke · LEIFD
- Benjamin Cook · BVA3
- Craig Cook · LEI2
- Ryan Douglas · LEI1*
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVAF
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Sam Hagon · LEI1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Sam Masters · LEI2
- Luke Becker · LEI1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Craig Cook · LEI3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Ryan Douglas · LEI1
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Sam Hagon · LEI1
- Antti Vuolas · BVA0
- Benjamin Cook · BVA3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Max Fricke · LEI1*
- Brady Kurtz · BVA0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Craig Cook · LEI2*
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1*
- Craig Cook · LEI0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 21 → 17 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 19 km/h W
- gusts up to 30 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.1 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 73 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 16 | 8 | +8 | −8 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| LEI | BVA | LEI | BVA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +8 | 94 % |
| 4 | +8 | 93 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +14 | 100 % |
| 12 | +16 | 100 % |
| 13 | +16 | 100 % |
| 14 | +20 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Masters | 5 | 7.2 | 13 | +5.8 |
| Craig Cook | 5 | 5.5 | 10 | +4.5 |
| Richard Lawson | 4 | 6.6 | 9 | +2.4 |
| Jake Mulford | 4 | 2.2 | 3 | +0.8 |
| Ryan Douglas | 4 | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 7.3 | 7 | -0.3 |
| Benjamin Cook | 6 | 10.4 | 10 | -0.4 |
| Sam Hagon | 4 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| Brady Kurtz | 6 | 12.5 | 12 | -0.5 |
| Dan Bewley | 1 | 2.6 | 2 | -0.6 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 |
| Antti Vuolas | 3 | 3.6 | 1 | -2.6 |
| Norick Blödorn | 5 | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 5 | 8.2 | 4 | -4.2 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.