LEI vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, July 18, 2024 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke3 2 3 2 3 215+1
- 2Richard Lawson1 3 3 2 110+1
- 3Sam Masters1 1 2 0 37+2
- 4Luke Becker2 2 3 1 3 112+1
- 6Craig Cook1 3 0 26+1
- 7Sam Hagon3 0 0 03
- 1Scott Nicholls0 2 1 03
- 3Danny King0 1 1 24
- 4Adam Ellis3 0 0 0 03
- 5Emil Sajfutdinow3 1 3 3 2 315
- 6Keynan Rew2 2 0 2 2 1 09+2
- 7Jordan Jenkins0 1 1 13+1
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1
- Scott Nicholls · IPW0
- Sam Hagon · LEI3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2
- Craig Cook · LEI1
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW0
- Adam Ellis · IPW3
- Luke Becker · LEI2
- Sam Masters · LEI1*
- Danny King · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Luke Becker · LEI2
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW1
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Scott Nicholls · IPW2
- Sam Masters · LEI1
- Adam Ellis · IPW0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Craig Cook · LEI3
- Sam Masters · LEI2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Adam Ellis · IPW0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW1*
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2*
- Luke Becker · LEI1
- Sam Masters · LEI0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Adam Ellis · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Scott Nicholls · IPW1
- Craig Cook · LEI0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Keynan Rew · IPW1*
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1
- Scott Nicholls · IPW0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Craig Cook · LEI2*
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW1
- Adam Ellis · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Luke Becker · LEI1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 25 → 23 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 8 km/h S
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 51 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 14 | 4 | +10 | −10 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| LEI | IPW | LEI | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +12 | 99 % |
| 8 | +12 | 98 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +10 | 97 % |
| 12 | +10 | 98 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +16 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Lawson | 5 | 6.5 | 10 | +3.5 |
| Luke Becker | 6 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| Max Fricke | 6 | 12.9 | 15 | +2.1 |
| Craig Cook | 4 | 4.1 | 6 | +1.9 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 6 | 13.6 | 15 | +1.4 |
| Sam Hagon | 4 | 2.4 | 3 | +0.6 |
| Jordan Jenkins | 4 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| Sam Masters | 5 | 8.0 | 7 | -1.0 |
| Keynan Rew | 7 | 10.0 | 9 | -1.0 |
| Danny King | 4 | 6.7 | 4 | -2.7 |
| Scott Nicholls | 4 | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 |
| Adam Ellis | 5 | 6.4 | 3 | -3.4 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.