Belle Vue Aces v Birmingham Brummies
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, May 6, 2024 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
Heat by heat
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Drizzle
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 15 → 17 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 16 km/h W
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.5 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.1 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 72 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead undefined
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -4 | 37 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +10 | 97 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +16 | 100 % |
| 12 | +18 | 100 % |
| 13 | +18 | 100 % |
| 14 | +20 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaimon Lidsey | 5 | 9.8 | 13 | +3.2 |
| Benjamin Cook | 4 | 6.0 | 9 | +3.0 |
| Leon Flint | 5 | 4.7 | 7 | +2.3 |
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 11.0 | 13 | +2.0 |
| Tom Brennan | 5 | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 |
| Connor Mountain | 4 | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 |
| Brady Kurtz | 4 | 9.5 | 10 | +0.5 |
| Connor Bailey | 4 | 2.4 | 2 | -0.4 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| Steve Worrall | 4 | 5.3 | 4 | -1.3 |
| Wiktor Lampart | 5 | 7.8 | 6 | -1.8 |
| Vaclav Milik | 6 | 9.6 | 5 | -4.6 |
| Piotr Pawlicki | 5 | 9.3 | 4 | -5.3 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.