LEI vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, May 2, 2024 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke3 2 1 3 3 315+2
- 2Richard Lawson2 3 3 210+1
- 3Sam Masters1 F 0 12
- 4Luke Becker0 2 3 16
- 5Ryan Douglas2 3 3 1 09
- 6Drew Kemp1 0 01
- 7Joe ThompsonF 0 0 00
- 1Emil SajfutdinowFD 1 2 2 27
- 3Jason Doyle3 3 2 3 3 115+1
- 4Dan Thompson1 2 1 0 04+2
- 5Adam Ellis3 1 2 1 07+1
- 6Keynan Rew3 1 2 1 2 211+2
- 7Jordan Jenkins2 0 13+2
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2*
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPWFD
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW2*
- Drew Kemp · LEI1
- Joe Thompson · LEIF
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2*
- Sam Masters · LEI1
- Luke Becker · LEI0
- Adam Ellis · IPW3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Keynan Rew · IPW1
- Joe Thompson · LEI0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Luke Becker · LEI2
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1
- Sam Masters · LEIF
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Adam Ellis · IPW1
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW0
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1*
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW1*
- Joe Thompson · LEI0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Adam Ellis · IPW2
- Keynan Rew · IPW1*
- Sam Masters · LEI0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Max Fricke · LEI1*
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2
- Adam Ellis · IPW1*
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2*
- Sam Masters · LEI1
- Joe Thompson · LEI0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2
- Ryan Douglas · LEI1
- Adam Ellis · IPW0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2
- Luke Becker · LEI1
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2
- Jason Doyle · IPW1*
- Ryan Douglas · LEI0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 17 → 12 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 14 km/h NE
- gusts up to 28 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.2 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 79 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 9 | 15 | −6 | +6 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| LEI | IPW | LEI | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | -4 | 34 % |
| 4 | -6 | 23 % |
| 5 | -8 | 18 % |
| 6 | -4 | 33 % |
| 7 | -4 | 32 % |
| 8 | -4 | 35 % |
| 9 | -4 | 28 % |
| 10 | -4 | 22 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | -8 | 7 % |
| 13 | -6 | 4 % |
| 14 | -4 | 8 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Lawson | 4 | 6.7 | 10 | +3.3 |
| Max Fricke | 6 | 12.2 | 15 | +2.8 |
| Jason Doyle | 6 | 12.3 | 15 | +2.7 |
| Keynan Rew | 6 | 8.6 | 11 | +2.4 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 |
| Dan Thompson | 5 | 3.4 | 4 | +0.6 |
| Adam Ellis | 5 | 6.5 | 7 | +0.5 |
| Ryan Douglas | 5 | 8.7 | 9 | +0.3 |
| Jordan Jenkins | 3 | 3.3 | 3 | -0.3 |
| Joe Thompson | 4 | 1.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Drew Kemp | 3 | 2.9 | 1 | -1.9 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 11.5 | 7 | -4.5 |
| Sam Masters | 4 | 7.2 | 2 | -5.2 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.