IPW vs BVA
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, March 21, 2024 · Foxhall Stadium, Ipswich
Results
- 1Emil Sajfutdinow2 1 3 3 312+1
- 2Adam Ellis0 2 3 27+1
- 3Danny King3 1 2 3 211+2
- 4Keynan Rew1 2 0 14+1
- 5Scott Nicholls2 3 1 17
- 6Jordan Jenkins0 2 0 24+1
- 7Dan Thompson3 1 1 16+1
- 1Brady Kurtz3 3 3 3 0 113
- 2Norick Blödorn1 0 2 25+1
- 3Jaimon Lidsey2 1 1 04
- 4Benjamin Cook0 FD 0 F0
- 5Dan Bewley3 3 1 2 09
- 6Connor Mountain2 0 2 37
- 7Connor Bailey1 0 01+1
Heat by heat
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Adam Ellis · IPW0
- Dan Thompson · IPW3
- Connor Mountain · BVA2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1*
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Keynan Rew · IPW1
- Benjamin Cook · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Scott Nicholls · IPW2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1*
- Connor Bailey · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2
- Danny King · IPW1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · IPW2
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1*
- Connor Mountain · BVA0
- Scott Nicholls · IPW3
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW2*
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA1
- Benjamin Cook · BVAFD
- Adam Ellis · IPW3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Connor Bailey · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Dan Bewley · BVA1
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Adam Ellis · IPW2*
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA1
- Benjamin Cook · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Scott Nicholls · IPW1
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Connor Mountain · BVA2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Scott Nicholls · IPW1
- Brady Kurtz · BVA0
- Connor Mountain · BVA3
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW2
- Keynan Rew · IPW1*
- Benjamin Cook · BVAF
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Danny King · IPW2*
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1
- Dan Bewley · BVA0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Temperature
- 13 → 12 °C
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Wind
- 16 km/h SW
- gusts up to 30 km/h
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Humidity
- 75 %
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| IPW | BVA | IPW | BVA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead IPW
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Mountain | 4 | 3.8 | 7 | +3.2 |
| Danny King | 5 | 8.2 | 11 | +2.8 |
| Dan Thompson | 4 | 3.7 | 6 | +2.3 |
| Adam Ellis | 4 | 4.9 | 7 | +2.1 |
| Brady Kurtz | 6 | 11.6 | 13 | +1.4 |
| Scott Nicholls | 4 | 6.2 | 7 | +0.8 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.3 | 5 | +0.7 |
| Keynan Rew | 4 | 4.1 | 4 | -0.1 |
| Jordan Jenkins | 4 | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 12.3 | 12 | -0.3 |
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 9.8 | 9 | -0.8 |
| Connor Bailey | 3 | 3.2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 7.8 | 4 | -3.8 |
| Benjamin Cook | 4 | 6.0 | 0 | -6.0 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.