BVA vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, April 22, 2024 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Brady Kurtz3 3 3 312
- 2Norick Blödorn1 1 3 05
- 3Jaimon Lidsey3 3 1 310
- 4Benjamin Cook1 1 3 2 18+1
- 5Dan Bewley3 3 2 2 212+2
- 6Connor Mountain2 0 3 16+1
- 7Connor Bailey1 0 R 12+1
- 1Emil Sajfutdinow2 2 2 R 17
- 2Jordan Jenkins0 0 11+1
- 3Adam Ellis0 1 2 0 03+1
- 4Ryan Douglas2 2 1 3 311+1
- 5Charles Wright1 2 0 03+1
- 6Keynan Rew0 0 11
- 7Dan Thompson3 2 2 2 09
Heat by heat
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW0
- Dan Thompson · IPW3
- Connor Mountain · BVA2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Ryan Douglas · IPW2
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1
- Adam Ellis · IPW0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2
- Charles Wright · IPW1*
- Connor Bailey · BVA0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Charles Wright · IPW2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Ryan Douglas · IPW2
- Adam Ellis · IPW1*
- Connor Mountain · BVA0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2
- Jordan Jenkins · IPW1*
- Connor Bailey · BVAR
- Benjamin Cook · BVA3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA1
- Charles Wright · IPW0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · IPW2
- Ryan Douglas · IPW1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Connor Mountain · BVA3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2*
- Keynan Rew · IPW1
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPWR
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1
- Adam Ellis · IPW0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2*
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1
- Charles Wright · IPW0
- Ryan Douglas · IPW3
- Benjamin Cook · BVA2
- Connor Mountain · BVA1*
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Ryan Douglas · IPW3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1*
- Adam Ellis · IPW0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Drizzle → Fog
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 9 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 4 km/h W
- gusts up to 15 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 3.8 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 94 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 14 | 4 | +10 | −10 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| BVA | IPW | BVA | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +6 | 90 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +10 | 97 % |
| 10 | +10 | 96 % |
| 11 | +14 | 100 % |
| 12 | +16 | 100 % |
| 13 | +20 | 100 % |
| 14 | +20 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Kurtz | 4 | 8.3 | 12 | +3.7 |
| Dan Thompson | 5 | 6.3 | 9 | +2.7 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 7.4 | 10 | +2.6 |
| Connor Mountain | 4 | 3.6 | 6 | +2.4 |
| Benjamin Cook | 5 | 6.0 | 8 | +2.0 |
| Ryan Douglas | 5 | 9.2 | 11 | +1.8 |
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 10.2 | 12 | +1.8 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 5.0 | 5 | +0.0 |
| Connor Bailey | 4 | 3.1 | 2 | -1.1 |
| Jordan Jenkins | 3 | 2.2 | 1 | -1.2 |
| Keynan Rew | 3 | 3.8 | 1 | -2.8 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 |
| Adam Ellis | 5 | 7.0 | 3 | -4.0 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 12.1 | 7 | -5.1 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.