LEI vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, April 11, 2024 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke2 3 2 2 110+1
- 2Richard LawsonFD 2 3 16+2
- 3Sam Masters2 1 1 26+1
- 4Luke Becker1 0 2 36+1
- 5Ryan Douglas3 3 2 3 011
- 6Drew Kemp3 0 0 F3
- 7Joe Thompson1 R 1 02
- 1Jack Holder3 2 3 1 312+1
- 2Kyle Howarth1 3 2 17
- 3Chris HolderR 1 3 3 29+2
- 4Joshua Pickering3 2 0 27
- 5Tai Woffinden2 R 3 05
- 6Jason Edwards2 1 0 1 15+1
- 7Daniel Gilkes0 1 FD1+1
Heat by heat
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Richard Lawson · LEIFD
- Drew Kemp · LEI3
- Jason Edwards · SHE2
- Joe Thompson · LEI1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Joshua Pickering · SHE3
- Sam Masters · LEI2
- Luke Becker · LEI1*
- Chris Holder · SHER
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Tai Woffinden · SHE2
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE1*
- Joe Thompson · LEIR
- Kyle Howarth · SHE3
- Jack Holder · SHE2*
- Sam Masters · LEI1
- Luke Becker · LEI0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2*
- Jason Edwards · SHE1
- Tai Woffinden · SHER
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2
- Chris Holder · SHE1*
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2
- Joe Thompson · LEI1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHEFD
- Tai Woffinden · SHE3
- Luke Becker · LEI2
- Sam Masters · LEI1*
- Jason Edwards · SHE0
- Chris Holder · SHE3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1*
- Joshua Pickering · SHE0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Chris Holder · SHE3
- Sam Masters · LEI2
- Jason Edwards · SHE1
- Joe Thompson · LEI0
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Max Fricke · LEI2*
- Jack Holder · SHE1
- Tai Woffinden · SHE0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2
- Jason Edwards · SHE1*
- Drew Kemp · LEIF
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Chris Holder · SHE2*
- Max Fricke · LEI1
- Ryan Douglas · LEI0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 17 → 16 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 23 km/h SW
- gusts up to 28 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 80 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| LEI | SHE | LEI | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | 0 | 62 % |
| 5 | -4 | 34 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | 0 | 60 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +2 | 70 % |
| 11 | 0 | 48 % |
| 12 | -2 | 35 % |
| 13 | +2 | 74 % |
| 14 | +2 | 77 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Douglas | 5 | 7.7 | 11 | +3.3 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 8.3 | 10 | +1.7 |
| Chris Holder | 5 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| Jack Holder | 5 | 11.0 | 12 | +1.0 |
| Jason Edwards | 5 | 4.3 | 5 | +0.7 |
| Joe Thompson | 4 | 2.1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Joshua Pickering | 4 | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 6.4 | 6 | -0.4 |
| Richard Lawson | 4 | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| Drew Kemp | 4 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| Sam Masters | 4 | 6.9 | 6 | -0.9 |
| Daniel Gilkes | 3 | 3.2 | 1 | -2.2 |
| Tai Woffinden | 4 | 9.3 | 5 | -4.3 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.