LEI vs BVA
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, October 3, 2024 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke1 2 3 17+1
- 2Richard Lawson2 1 3 2 08+2
- 3Sam Masters3 2 2 3 111
- 4Luke Becker0 0 1 34+1
- 5Ryan Douglas2 3 2 07
- 6Drew KempR 0 0 11
- 7Sam Hagon1 1 0 13+1
- 1Brady Kurtz3 3 3 211+1
- 2Norick Blödorn0 1 2 14
- 3Jaimon Lidsey2 2 1 2 29+1
- 4Benjamin Cook1 1 0 24+2
- 5Dan Bewley3 3 3 3 315
- 6Antti Vuolas3 0 0 03
- 7Jake Mulford2 0 1 03+2
Heat by heat
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Max Fricke · LEI1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Antti Vuolas · BVA3
- Jake Mulford · BVA2*
- Sam Hagon · LEI1
- Drew Kemp · LEIR
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1*
- Luke Becker · LEI0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Sam Hagon · LEI1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Sam Masters · LEI2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Luke Becker · LEI0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1*
- Antti Vuolas · BVA0
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1*
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2
- Jake Mulford · BVA1*
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Sam Masters · LEI2
- Luke Becker · LEI1*
- Antti Vuolas · BVA0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2*
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA1
- Benjamin Cook · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Sam Hagon · LEI1
- Antti Vuolas · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2*
- Max Fricke · LEI1
- Ryan Douglas · LEI0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Benjamin Cook · BVA2
- Drew Kemp · LEI1
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2*
- Sam Masters · LEI1
- Richard Lawson · LEI0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy → Partly cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 11 → 8 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 11 km/h E
- gusts up to 20 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 80 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 10 | 14 | −4 | +4 | |
| 5–7 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 14–15 | 5 | 7 | −2 | +2 | |
| LEI | BVA | LEI | BVA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | -4 | 37 % |
| 3 | -4 | 34 % |
| 4 | -4 | 38 % |
| 5 | -6 | 22 % |
| 6 | -6 | 24 % |
| 7 | -6 | 18 % |
| 8 | -6 | 16 % |
| 9 | -6 | 20 % |
| 10 | -2 | 36 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | -2 | 35 % |
| 13 | -6 | 4 % |
| 14 | -4 | 8 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 11.7 | 15 | +3.3 |
| Brady Kurtz | 4 | 8.4 | 11 | +2.6 |
| Sam Masters | 5 | 8.4 | 11 | +2.6 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 5 | 8.1 | 9 | +0.9 |
| Ryan Douglas | 4 | 6.3 | 7 | +0.7 |
| Jake Mulford | 4 | 2.5 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 6.8 | 7 | +0.2 |
| Sam Hagon | 4 | 3.0 | 3 | -0.0 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.1 | 4 | -0.1 |
| Richard Lawson | 5 | 8.5 | 8 | -0.5 |
| Antti Vuolas | 4 | 3.8 | 3 | -0.8 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 6.7 | 4 | -2.7 |
| Drew Kemp | 4 | 4.2 | 1 | -3.2 |
| Benjamin Cook | 4 | 7.6 | 4 | -3.6 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.