BVA vs LEI
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, September 23, 2024 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Brady Kurtz0 3 3 2 210+2
- 2Norick Blödorn3 0 3 06
- 3Jaimon Lidsey2 3 2 310+1
- 4Niels Kristian Iversen3 1 1 38+1
- 5Dan Bewley3 3 3 3 315
- 6Antti Vuolas2 0 0 13
- 7Jake Mulford1 1 0 02+1
- 1Max Fricke1 0 2 14+1
- 2Richard Lawson2 2 1 1 06+2
- 3Sam Masters1 2 1 15+2
- 4Luke Becker0 1 2 25+1
- 5Ryan Douglas2 1 3 R 17+1
- 6Lewis Kerr3 0 03
- 7Sam Hagon0 2 2 2 06
Heat by heat
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Max Fricke · LEI1*
- Brady Kurtz · BVA0
- Lewis Kerr · LEI3
- Antti Vuolas · BVA2
- Jake Mulford · BVA1*
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Niels Kristian Iversen · BVA3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2*
- Sam Masters · LEI1
- Luke Becker · LEI0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Jake Mulford · BVA1
- Lewis Kerr · LEI0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Niels Kristian Iversen · BVA1
- Max Fricke · LEI0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Sam Hagon · LEI2
- Ryan Douglas · LEI1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Sam Masters · LEI2
- Luke Becker · LEI1*
- Antti Vuolas · BVA0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Sam Hagon · LEI2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Ryan Douglas · LEI3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Niels Kristian Iversen · BVA1*
- Lewis Kerr · LEI0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Luke Becker · LEI2
- Sam Masters · LEI1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1*
- Antti Vuolas · BVA0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Sam Hagon · LEI2
- Sam Masters · LEI1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2*
- Max Fricke · LEI1
- Ryan Douglas · LEIR
- Niels Kristian Iversen · BVA3
- Luke Becker · LEI2
- Antti Vuolas · BVA1
- Sam Hagon · LEI0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2*
- Ryan Douglas · LEI1
- Richard Lawson · LEI0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Drizzle
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 14 → 13 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 11 km/h NW
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 91 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| BVA | LEI | BVA | LEI | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +8 | 94 % |
| 6 | +8 | 95 % |
| 7 | +8 | 95 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +14 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 6.4 | 10 | +3.6 |
| Sam Hagon | 5 | 3.0 | 6 | +3.0 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.0 | 6 | +2.0 |
| Niels Kristian Iversen | 4 | 6.9 | 8 | +1.1 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 10.2 | 10 | -0.2 |
| Ryan Douglas | 5 | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Jake Mulford | 4 | 2.5 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Antti Vuolas | 4 | 3.7 | 3 | -0.7 |
| Lewis Kerr | 3 | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 7.0 | 5 | -2.0 |
| Sam Masters | 4 | 7.6 | 5 | -2.6 |
| Richard Lawson | 5 | 8.7 | 6 | -2.7 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 7.6 | 4 | -3.6 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.