BVA vs LEI
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, April 8, 2024 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Brady Kurtz2 3 3 311+1
- 2Norick Blödorn3 1 3 29+1
- 3Jaimon Lidsey1 3 0 26+2
- 4Benjamin Cook2 0 3 16+1
- 5Dan Bewley3 3 3 09
- 6Connor Mountain2 0 1 25
- 7Connor Bailey0 1 1 35
- 1Max Fricke0 1 2 14+2
- 2Richard Lawson1 2 2 05
- 3Sam Masters3 2 1 0 17+1
- 4Luke BeckerR 1 1 35+1
- 5Ryan Douglas2 2 2 28
- 6Drew Kemp3 0 R 03
- 7Joe Thompson1 0 01
Heat by heat
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2*
- Richard Lawson · LEI1
- Max Fricke · LEI0
- Drew Kemp · LEI3
- Connor Mountain · BVA2
- Joe Thompson · LEI1
- Connor Bailey · BVA0
- Sam Masters · LEI3
- Benjamin Cook · BVA2
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA1*
- Luke Becker · LEIR
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1
- Joe Thompson · LEI0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Max Fricke · LEI1*
- Benjamin Cook · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Sam Masters · LEI2
- Luke Becker · LEI1*
- Connor Mountain · BVA0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1
- Joe Thompson · LEI0
- Benjamin Cook · BVA3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Sam Masters · LEI1*
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Luke Becker · LEI1
- Sam Masters · LEI0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Connor Mountain · BVA1
- Richard Lawson · LEI0
- Connor Bailey · BVA3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2*
- Sam Masters · LEI1
- Drew Kemp · LEIR
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Ryan Douglas · LEI2
- Max Fricke · LEI1*
- Dan Bewley · BVA0
- Luke Becker · LEI3
- Connor Mountain · BVA2
- Benjamin Cook · BVA1*
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Drizzle
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 14 → 12 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 7 km/h E
- gusts up to 33 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 2.6 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.9 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 70 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 11–13 | 12 | 6 | +6 | −6 | |
| 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| BVA | LEI | BVA | LEI | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +6 | 88 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +8 | 94 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +12 | 100 % |
| 11 | +14 | 100 % |
| 12 | +18 | 100 % |
| 13 | +18 | 100 % |
| 14 | +18 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.9 | 9 | +4.1 |
| Brady Kurtz | 4 | 8.4 | 11 | +2.6 |
| Ryan Douglas | 4 | 6.2 | 8 | +1.8 |
| Benjamin Cook | 4 | 4.9 | 6 | +1.1 |
| Connor Mountain | 4 | 4.1 | 5 | +0.9 |
| Connor Bailey | 4 | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 |
| Dan Bewley | 4 | 8.8 | 9 | +0.2 |
| Joe Thompson | 3 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Drew Kemp | 4 | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 7.4 | 6 | -1.4 |
| Sam Masters | 5 | 8.6 | 7 | -1.6 |
| Luke Becker | 4 | 6.7 | 5 | -1.7 |
| Richard Lawson | 4 | 6.7 | 5 | -1.7 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 7.3 | 4 | -3.3 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.