IPW vs BVA

ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, September 21, 2023 · Foxhall Stadium, Ipswich

Results

IPW 54 : 36 BVA
IPW
BVA

Heat by heat

Heat 14:2
Heat 22:4
Heat 34:2
Heat 45:1
Heat 55:1
Heat 64:2
Heat 73:3
Heat 82:4
Heat 94:2
Heat 104:2
Heat 113:3
Heat 123:3
Heat 135:1
Heat 143:3
Heat 153:3

Conditions

Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.

Sky
Rain → Cloudy
Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Temperature
13 → 12 °C
Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Wind
7 km/h S
gusts up to 24 km/h
Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Rain during the meeting
0 mm
Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Rain in the 24 hours before
16 mm
Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Humidity
89 %
Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away

Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0

Match by phase

Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.

PointsBalance
1–4159+6−6
5–7126+6−6
8–10108+2−2
11–13117+4−4
14–156600
IPWBVAIPWBVA

The match heat by heat

Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.

  • Lead IPW
051015115
HeatLeadHome win chance
1+279 %
2064 %
3+277 %
4+690 %
5+1096 %
6+1299 %
7+1299 %
8+1098 %
9+1299 %
10+1499 %
11+14100 %
12+14100 %
13+18100 %
14+18100 %

Pre-meeting expectation

Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.

RiderheatsExpectedScored±
Chris Harris56.810+3.2
Danny King47.510+2.5
Erik Riss43.76+2.3
Danyon Hume31.63+1.4
Emil Sajfutdinow512.714+1.3
Tom Brennan56.98+1.1
Brady Kurtz58.910+1.1
Keynan Rew68.89+0.2
Jack Smith32.12-0.1
Norick Blödorn55.33-2.3
Connor Bailey54.32-2.3
Jaimon Lidsey612.08-4.0
Dan Bewley49.25-4.2

Track & gates

Starting gates

One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.

Points in the heatAverage of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting

Inside vs outside

Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.

inside 1 + 2 32.3:26.3 outside 3 + 4
Trend ◀ +1.23 towards the inside
Margin, average of the last 4 heatsTrend over the meeting
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