IPW vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, September 14, 2023 · Foxhall Stadium, Ipswich
Results
- 1Emil Sajfutdinow2 3 3 2 313+1
- 2Danyon Hume1 R 3 04+1
- 3Danny King3 2 3 3 112
- 4Erik Riss0 1 1 13+1
- 5Jason Doyle3 3 3 312
- 6Keynan Rew3 0 1 2 39+1
- 7Joe Thompson2 0 02+1
- 1Max Fricke3 3 2 0 08
- 2Kyle Howarth0 0 1 12+2
- 3Chris Holder2 2 2 R6
- 4Joshua Pickering1 0 1 24+2
- 5Tobiasz Musielak2 2 2 1 29
- 6Kyle Newman0 1 0 01+1
- 7Jason Edwards1 1 2 15+1
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · SHE3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2
- Danyon Hume · IPW1*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Joe Thompson · IPW2*
- Jason Edwards · SHE1
- Kyle Newman · SHE0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Chris Holder · SHE2
- Joshua Pickering · SHE1*
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Jason Edwards · SHE1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Max Fricke · SHE3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Erik Riss · IPW1*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Kyle Newman · SHE1*
- Danyon Hume · IPWR
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Chris Holder · SHE2
- Keynan Rew · IPW1
- Joshua Pickering · SHE0
- Danyon Hume · IPW3
- Jason Edwards · SHE2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1*
- Joe Thompson · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Erik Riss · IPW1
- Kyle Newman · SHE0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Chris Holder · SHE2
- Joshua Pickering · SHE1*
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Max Fricke · SHE2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1*
- Joe Thompson · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2*
- Jason Edwards · SHE1
- Chris Holder · SHER
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE1
- Max Fricke · SHE0
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2
- Erik Riss · IPW1
- Kyle Newman · SHE0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Danny King · IPW1
- Max Fricke · SHE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Clear
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Temperature
- 18 → 16 °C
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Wind
- 12 km/h SE
- gusts up to 19 km/h
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 81 %
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | −4 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| IPW | SHE | IPW | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead IPW
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +4 | 83 % |
| 5 | +4 | 83 % |
| 6 | +4 | 82 % |
| 7 | +6 | 90 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +8 | 95 % |
| 12 | +12 | 100 % |
| 13 | +16 | 100 % |
| 14 | +18 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny King | 5 | 8.3 | 12 | +3.7 |
| Jason Doyle | 4 | 8.5 | 12 | +3.5 |
| Keynan Rew | 5 | 6.8 | 9 | +2.2 |
| Jason Edwards | 4 | 3.6 | 5 | +1.4 |
| Danyon Hume | 4 | 3.0 | 4 | +1.0 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 12.3 | 13 | +0.7 |
| Joe Thompson | 3 | 1.4 | 2 | +0.6 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.8 | 9 | +0.2 |
| Erik Riss | 4 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| Chris Holder | 4 | 6.9 | 6 | -0.9 |
| Max Fricke | 5 | 9.2 | 8 | -1.2 |
| Joshua Pickering | 4 | 7.0 | 4 | -3.0 |
| Kyle Newman | 4 | 4.1 | 1 | -3.1 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 6.1 | 2 | -4.1 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.