SHE vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, September 11, 2023 · Owlerton Stadium, Sheffield
Results
- 1Max Fricke0 1 1 02+1
- 2Kyle Howarth2 3 3 210
- 3Chris Holder3 3 1 29
- 4Joshua Pickering1 2 3 3 211+1
- 5Tobiasz Musielak1 3 2 3 09
- 6Kyle Newman2 1 0 14
- 7Jason Edwards1 0 1 13+2
- 1Emil Sajfutdinow1 0 3 2 39
- 2Erik Riss3 1 2 17
- 3Danny King2 2 3 310
- 4Danyon Hume0 0 0 22
- 5Jason Doyle2 2 2 1 18+2
- 6Keynan Rew3 3 0 FD 06
- 7Joe Thompson0 0 00
Heat by heat
- Erik Riss · IPW3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1
- Max Fricke · SHE0
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Kyle Newman · SHE2
- Jason Edwards · SHE1*
- Joe Thompson · IPW0
- Chris Holder · SHE3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Joshua Pickering · SHE1
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE1
- Jason Edwards · SHE0
- Chris Holder · SHE3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2*
- Erik Riss · IPW1
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW0
- Kyle Howarth · SHE3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Max Fricke · SHE1
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Kyle Newman · SHE1
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Kyle Howarth · SHE3
- Erik Riss · IPW2
- Jason Edwards · SHE1
- Joe Thompson · IPW0
- Joshua Pickering · SHE3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Chris Holder · SHE1
- Keynan Rew · IPWFD
- Danny King · IPW3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2
- Max Fricke · SHE1*
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Erik Riss · IPW1
- Kyle Newman · SHE0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Chris Holder · SHE2
- Jason Edwards · SHE1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2
- Jason Doyle · IPW1*
- Max Fricke · SHE0
- Joshua Pickering · SHE3
- Danyon Hume · IPW2
- Kyle Newman · SHE1
- Joe Thompson · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2
- Jason Doyle · IPW1
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Drizzle
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 19 → 16 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 10 km/h W
- gusts up to 22 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0.6 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 2.6 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 83 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 10 | 14 | −4 | +4 | |
| 5–7 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| SHE | IPW | SHE | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead SHE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | -4 | 38 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | +2 | 74 % |
| 7 | +4 | 82 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +8 | 94 % |
| 10 | +8 | 95 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +6 | 96 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 5.1 | 10 | +4.9 |
| Erik Riss | 4 | 3.7 | 7 | +3.3 |
| Joshua Pickering | 5 | 7.7 | 11 | +3.3 |
| Danny King | 4 | 7.5 | 10 | +2.5 |
| Chris Holder | 4 | 6.8 | 9 | +2.2 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 8.6 | 9 | +0.4 |
| Keynan Rew | 5 | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 |
| Jason Edwards | 4 | 3.6 | 3 | -0.6 |
| Kyle Newman | 4 | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 |
| Danyon Hume | 4 | 3.4 | 2 | -1.4 |
| Joe Thompson | 3 | 1.8 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 10.2 | 8 | -2.2 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| Max Fricke | 4 | 8.2 | 2 | -6.2 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.