LEI vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Saturday, August 26, 2023 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke2 3 3 3 1 214
- 2Craig Cook0 0 00
- 3Richard Lawson1 1 2 3 07+1
- 4Justin Sedgmen2 0 1 03+1
- 5Richie Worrall1 2 3 06+1
- 6Jake Allen2 1 2 16+2
- 7Drew Kemp3 0 1 26+1
- 1Ryan Douglas3 3 FD 3 110
- 3Joshua Pickering3 2 1 2 R8+1
- 4Kyle HowarthR 0 00
- 5Tai Woffinden3 2 3 2 313+1
- 6Lewis Kerr1 1 2 1 2 XD 29+4
- 7Jason EdwardsF 3 0 1 37
Heat by heat
- Ryan Douglas · SHE3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Lewis Kerr · SHE1
- Craig Cook · LEI0
- Drew Kemp · LEI3
- Jake Allen · LEI2*
- Lewis Kerr · SHE1
- Jason Edwards · SHEF
- Joshua Pickering · SHE3
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1*
- Kyle Howarth · SHER
- Tai Woffinden · SHE3
- Lewis Kerr · SHE2*
- Richie Worrall · LEI1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Ryan Douglas · SHE3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2*
- Richard Lawson · LEI1
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Tai Woffinden · SHE2
- Lewis Kerr · SHE1*
- Craig Cook · LEI0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Richie Worrall · LEI2*
- Joshua Pickering · SHE1
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Jason Edwards · SHE3
- Lewis Kerr · SHE2*
- Drew Kemp · LEI1
- Craig Cook · LEI0
- Tai Woffinden · SHE3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI1*
- Jason Edwards · SHE0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2
- Jake Allen · LEI1
- Kyle Howarth · SHE0
- Richie Worrall · LEI3
- Jake Allen · LEI2*
- Jason Edwards · SHE1
- Ryan Douglas · SHEFD
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Drew Kemp · LEI2*
- Joshua Pickering · SHER
- Lewis Kerr · SHEXD
- Ryan Douglas · SHE3
- Tai Woffinden · SHE2*
- Max Fricke · LEI1
- Richie Worrall · LEI0
- Jason Edwards · SHE3
- Lewis Kerr · SHE2*
- Jake Allen · LEI1
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI0
- Tai Woffinden · SHE3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Ryan Douglas · SHE1
- Richard Lawson · LEI0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 16 → 14 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 13 km/h W
- gusts up to 15 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 2.4 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 74 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 11 | 13 | −2 | +2 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 6 | +5 | −5 | |
| 14–15 | 3 | 9 | −6 | +6 | |
| LEI | SHE | LEI | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | -2 | 46 % |
| 5 | -6 | 22 % |
| 6 | -6 | 24 % |
| 7 | -2 | 46 % |
| 8 | -6 | 16 % |
| 9 | -6 | 20 % |
| 10 | -4 | 22 % |
| 11 | 0 | 48 % |
| 12 | +5 | 92 % |
| 13 | +1 | 74 % |
| 14 | -3 | 23 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Edwards | 5 | 3.6 | 7 | +3.4 |
| Drew Kemp | 4 | 4.0 | 6 | +2.0 |
| Tai Woffinden | 5 | 11.1 | 13 | +1.9 |
| Ryan Douglas | 5 | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
| Jake Allen | 4 | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 |
| Richie Worrall | 4 | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 |
| Joshua Pickering | 5 | 7.8 | 8 | +0.2 |
| Max Fricke | 6 | 13.8 | 14 | +0.2 |
| Lewis Kerr | 7 | 9.9 | 9 | -0.9 |
| Richard Lawson | 5 | 8.5 | 7 | -1.5 |
| Justin Sedgmen | 4 | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 |
| Craig Cook | 3 | 3.2 | 0 | -3.2 |
| Kyle Howarth | 3 | 3.7 | 0 | -3.7 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.