IPW vs LEI
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, August 24, 2023 · Foxhall Stadium, Ipswich
Results
- 1Emil SajfutdinowXO 3 3 3 211+1
- 2Erik Riss2 0 1 25+1
- 3Danny King3 0 3 28
- 4Keynan Rew1 1 2 26+1
- 5Jason Doyle3 3 3 2 314+1
- 6Danyon Hume3 0 0 14+1
- 7Jason Edwards1 2 0 03+1
- 1Max Fricke3 3 2 3 1 113
- 2Richie Worrall1 2 2 1 E6+3
- 3Richard Lawson2 2 1 16
- 4Justin Sedgmen0 1 0 34+1
- 5Craig Cook1 2 FD3
- 6Jake Allen2 1 1 0 R4+1
- 7Drew Kemp0 FD 3 03
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Erik Riss · IPW2
- Richie Worrall · LEI1
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPWXO
- Danyon Hume · IPW3
- Jake Allen · LEI2
- Jason Edwards · IPW1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Keynan Rew · IPW1
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Jason Edwards · IPW2*
- Craig Cook · LEI1
- Drew Kemp · LEIFD
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Richie Worrall · LEI2*
- Keynan Rew · IPW1
- Danny King · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Craig Cook · LEI2
- Jake Allen · LEI1*
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI1*
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Drew Kemp · LEI3
- Richie Worrall · LEI2*
- Erik Riss · IPW1
- Jason Edwards · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2*
- Jake Allen · LEI1
- Craig Cook · LEIFD
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Erik Riss · IPW2*
- Richard Lawson · LEI1
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Richie Worrall · LEI1*
- Jason Edwards · IPW0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Richard Lawson · LEI1
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2*
- Max Fricke · LEI1
- Jake Allen · LEI0
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2
- Danyon Hume · IPW1*
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2*
- Max Fricke · LEI1
- Jake Allen · LEIR
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Temperature
- 21 → 18 °C
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Wind
- 12 km/h W
- gusts up to 27 km/h
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 2.2 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 75 %
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–15 | 8 | 4 | +4 | −4 | |
| IPW | LEI | IPW | LEI | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead IPW
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | +2 | 74 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | -2 | 48 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +6 | 92 % |
| 12 | +4 | 86 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +8 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 11.3 | 14 | +2.7 |
| Danny King | 4 | 6.5 | 8 | +1.5 |
| Erik Riss | 4 | 4.1 | 5 | +0.9 |
| Richie Worrall | 4 | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 |
| Keynan Rew | 4 | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 |
| Max Fricke | 6 | 12.6 | 13 | +0.4 |
| Jason Edwards | 4 | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| Danyon Hume | 4 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Jake Allen | 5 | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Richard Lawson | 4 | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 |
| Craig Cook | 3 | 3.8 | 3 | -0.8 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 12.6 | 11 | -1.6 |
| Justin Sedgmen | 4 | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 |
| Drew Kemp | 4 | 4.9 | 3 | -1.9 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.