BVA vs SHE
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, August 7, 2023 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Brady Kurtz2 1 3 17
- 2Tom BrennanR 0 3 25+1
- 3Jaimon Lidsey3 3 1 3 313+1
- 4Charles Wright1 F 2 14
- 5Dan Bewley2 2 3 3 212+1
- 6Norick Blödorn1 0 0 34
- 7Connor Bailey3 1 2 17+2
- 1Tobiasz Musielak3 2 2 2 110
- 2Kyle Howarth1 1 1 14+2
- 3Adam Ellis0 3 1 26
- 4Joshua Pickering2 1 0 03
- 5Tai Woffinden3 2 3 0 2 010+1
- 6Lewis Kerr2 3 0 05
- 7Daniel Gilkes0 0 00
Heat by heat
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Tom Brennan · BVAR
- Connor Bailey · BVA3
- Lewis Kerr · SHE2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
- Tai Woffinden · SHE3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1*
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1*
- Charles Wright · BVAF
- Lewis Kerr · SHE3
- Tai Woffinden · SHE2*
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Adam Ellis · SHE3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Joshua Pickering · SHE1
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Connor Bailey · BVA2*
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Tai Woffinden · SHE3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA1*
- Lewis Kerr · SHE0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2*
- Adam Ellis · SHE1
- Joshua Pickering · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Adam Ellis · SHE2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1
- Lewis Kerr · SHE0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1
- Tai Woffinden · SHE0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Tai Woffinden · SHE2
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Joshua Pickering · SHE0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2*
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE1
- Tai Woffinden · SHE0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 17 → 14 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 10 km/h W
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.2 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 67 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 6 | 12 | −6 | +6 | |
| 8–10 | 13 | 5 | +8 | −8 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 9 | 3 | +6 | −6 | |
| BVA | SHE | BVA | SHE | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -2 | 53 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | +2 | 77 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | -2 | 48 % |
| 7 | -4 | 32 % |
| 8 | 0 | 57 % |
| 9 | 0 | 56 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +6 | 92 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +10 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaimon Lidsey | 5 | 8.8 | 13 | +4.2 |
| Connor Bailey | 4 | 3.6 | 7 | +3.4 |
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 10.6 | 12 | +1.4 |
| Adam Ellis | 4 | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 |
| Tobiasz Musielak | 5 | 9.9 | 10 | +0.1 |
| Lewis Kerr | 4 | 5.0 | 5 | +0.0 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 |
| Brady Kurtz | 4 | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Kyle Howarth | 4 | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 5.3 | 4 | -1.3 |
| Tai Woffinden | 6 | 11.5 | 10 | -1.5 |
| Daniel Gilkes | 3 | 2.6 | 0 | -2.6 |
| Joshua Pickering | 4 | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.