LEI vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, July 31, 2023 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke1 2 1 3 1 08
- 2Justin Sedgmen3 0 0 14
- 3Troy Batchelor0 1 1 02+2
- 4Chris Harris2 2 2 2 19
- 5Richard Lawson1 3 2 06
- 6Jake Allen0 0 11+1
- 7Drew Kemp3 0 3 17
- 1Emil Sajfutdinow2 3 3 3 213+1
- 2Keynan Rew0 0 2 13
- 3Danny King3 2 2 310
- 4Erik Riss1 R R R1
- 5Jason Doyle3 3 3 2 314+1
- 6Danyon Hume2 1 03
- 7Dan Thompson1 2 1 2 39+4
Heat by heat
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2
- Max Fricke · LEI1
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Drew Kemp · LEI3
- Danyon Hume · IPW2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1*
- Jake Allen · LEI0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Chris Harris · LEI2
- Erik Riss · IPW1
- Troy Batchelor · LEI0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2*
- Richard Lawson · LEI1
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Chris Harris · LEI2
- Troy Batchelor · LEI1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Max Fricke · LEI2
- Danyon Hume · IPW1
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Max Fricke · LEI1
- Erik Riss · IPWR
- Drew Kemp · LEI3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1*
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Chris Harris · LEI2
- Troy Batchelor · LEI1*
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI1
- Erik Riss · IPWR
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Keynan Rew · IPW1
- Jake Allen · LEI0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2*
- Drew Kemp · LEI1
- Troy Batchelor · LEI0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2*
- Max Fricke · LEI1
- Richard Lawson · LEI0
- Dan Thompson · IPW3
- Chris Harris · LEI2
- Jake Allen · LEI1*
- Erik Riss · IPWR
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2*
- Chris Harris · LEI1
- Max Fricke · LEI0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Showers → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 18 → 16 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 20 km/h SW
- gusts up to 26 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 5.5 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 76 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 10 | 14 | −4 | +4 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 4 | 14 | −10 | +10 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| LEI | IPW | LEI | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2 | 79 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | -4 | 38 % |
| 5 | -4 | 34 % |
| 6 | -6 | 24 % |
| 7 | -4 | 32 % |
| 8 | -4 | 35 % |
| 9 | -4 | 28 % |
| 10 | -2 | 36 % |
| 11 | -4 | 18 % |
| 12 | -8 | 7 % |
| 13 | -12 | 0 % |
| 14 | -12 | 0 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Thompson | 5 | 4.5 | 9 | +4.5 |
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 10.2 | 14 | +3.8 |
| Drew Kemp | 4 | 4.4 | 7 | +2.6 |
| Danny King | 4 | 7.9 | 10 | +2.1 |
| Chris Harris | 5 | 7.9 | 9 | +1.1 |
| Danyon Hume | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 12.5 | 13 | +0.5 |
| Richard Lawson | 4 | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| Keynan Rew | 4 | 4.3 | 3 | -1.3 |
| Erik Riss | 4 | 3.0 | 1 | -2.0 |
| Justin Sedgmen | 4 | 6.1 | 4 | -2.1 |
| Troy Batchelor | 4 | 4.2 | 2 | -2.2 |
| Jake Allen | 3 | 4.1 | 1 | -3.1 |
| Max Fricke | 6 | 12.0 | 8 | -4.0 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.