BVA vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, July 17, 2023 · National Speedway Stadium, Manchester
Results
- 1Dan Bewley1 3 3 2 R9+1
- 2Norick Blödorn2 1 3 28+1
- 3Jaimon Lidsey0 2 R 35
- 4Charles Wright3 0 2 3 E8
- 5Brady Kurtz3 2 2 18+1
- 6Tom Brennan3 1 1 2 2 110+4
- 7Connor Bailey0 1 01
- 1Emil Sajfutdinow3 1 3 3 1 213+1
- 2Keynan Rew0 3 2 05
- 3Danny King2 3 1 1 310
- 4Erik Riss1 0 0 01+1
- 5Jason DoyleR 2 3 XO5
- 6Danyon Hume2 0 1 03
- 7Dan Thompson1 2 14+2
Heat by heat
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2
- Dan Bewley · BVA1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Danyon Hume · IPW2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1*
- Connor Bailey · BVA0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Erik Riss · IPW1*
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1
- Jason Doyle · IPWR
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1
- Charles Wright · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1*
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2
- Dan Thompson · IPW1*
- Connor Bailey · BVA0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Danyon Hume · IPW1
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVAR
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1*
- Jason Doyle · IPWXO
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2*
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2*
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Dan Bewley · BVAR
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 18 → 16 °C
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Wind
- 11 km/h NW
- gusts up to 24 km/h
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 4.9 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 65 %
- Measured · Manchester Airport, 14 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | −2 | |
| 5–7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8–10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 11–13 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 14–15 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| BVA | IPW | BVA | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead BVA
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | 0 | 64 % |
| 3 | 0 | 64 % |
| 4 | +2 | 73 % |
| 5 | 0 | 64 % |
| 6 | +2 | 74 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | +2 | 71 % |
| 9 | 0 | 56 % |
| 10 | +4 | 84 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +12 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.9 | 8 | +3.1 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 5.6 | 8 | +2.4 |
| Danny King | 5 | 7.7 | 10 | +2.3 |
| Tom Brennan | 6 | 7.8 | 10 | +2.2 |
| Dan Thompson | 3 | 2.3 | 4 | +1.7 |
| Keynan Rew | 4 | 4.1 | 5 | +0.9 |
| Danyon Hume | 4 | 2.6 | 3 | +0.4 |
| Brady Kurtz | 4 | 7.7 | 8 | +0.3 |
| Dan Bewley | 5 | 10.4 | 9 | -1.4 |
| Erik Riss | 4 | 2.5 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 6 | 15.0 | 13 | -2.0 |
| Connor Bailey | 3 | 3.4 | 1 | -2.4 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 7.9 | 5 | -2.9 |
| Jason Doyle | 4 | 8.0 | 5 | -3.0 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.