IPW vs BVA
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, July 13, 2023 · Foxhall Stadium, Ipswich
Results
- 1Emil Sajfutdinow3 3 3 2 112+2
- 2Keynan Rew0 2 3 05+1
- 3Danny King3 2 1 06
- 4Erik Riss0 1 R1+1
- 5Jason Doyle3 3 3 3 214
- 6Danyon Hume2 0 0 0 13
- 7Dan Thompson0 2 1 03+1
- 1Dan Bewley2 FD 2 04
- 2Norick Blödorn1 3 1 16+2
- 3Jaimon Lidsey2 1 1 26+3
- 4Charles Wright1 2 2 3 08+1
- 5Brady Kurtz2 R 3 1 39
- 6Tom Brennan3 1 2 3 211+2
- 7Connor Bailey1 1 02+1
Heat by heat
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Danyon Hume · IPW2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Danny King · IPW3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Brady Kurtz · BVA2
- Connor Bailey · BVA1*
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Erik Riss · IPW1*
- Dan Bewley · BVAFD
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2*
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Brady Kurtz · BVAR
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA1*
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Keynan Rew · IPW3
- Dan Thompson · IPW2*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1
- Connor Bailey · BVA0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Erik Riss · IPWR
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Charles Wright · BVA2
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA1*
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Norick Blödorn · BVA1*
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Tom Brennan · BVA3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2*
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Danny King · IPW0
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW2*
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1
- Dan Bewley · BVA0
- Charles Wright · BVA3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2*
- Danyon Hume · IPW1
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1*
- Charles Wright · BVA0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Temperature
- 19 → 17 °C
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Wind
- 11 km/h SW
- gusts up to 30 km/h
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1 mm
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
- Humidity
- 69 %
- Measured · Wattisham, 19 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 11 | 13 | −2 | +2 | |
| 5–7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 8–10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11–13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14–15 | 4 | 8 | −4 | +4 | |
| IPW | BVA | IPW | BVA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead IPW
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | -2 | 54 % |
| 3 | -2 | 47 % |
| 4 | -2 | 46 % |
| 5 | -2 | 47 % |
| 6 | +2 | 74 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +2 | 73 % |
| 10 | +2 | 70 % |
| 11 | +2 | 68 % |
| 12 | -2 | 35 % |
| 13 | +2 | 74 % |
| 14 | -2 | 23 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Doyle | 5 | 9.8 | 14 | +4.2 |
| Tom Brennan | 5 | 7.5 | 11 | +3.5 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 |
| Charles Wright | 5 | 6.9 | 8 | +1.1 |
| Keynan Rew | 4 | 4.0 | 5 | +1.0 |
| Dan Thompson | 4 | 2.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 9.0 | 9 | +0.0 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 5 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| Danyon Hume | 5 | 3.8 | 3 | -0.8 |
| Danny King | 4 | 7.0 | 6 | -1.0 |
| Erik Riss | 3 | 2.0 | 1 | -1.0 |
| Connor Bailey | 3 | 3.5 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 8.2 | 6 | -2.2 |
| Dan Bewley | 4 | 8.5 | 4 | -4.5 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.