SHE vs IPW
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Monday, July 10, 2023 · Owlerton Stadium, Sheffield
Results
- 1Jack Holder3 2 3 1 211+1
- 2Lewis KerrFD0
- 3Adam Ellis3 FD 0 36
- 4Joshua Pickering1 1 2 37
- 5Tobiasz Musielak3 3 2 2 111+1
- 6Kyle Howarth3 1 1 2 1 2 212+3
- 7Daniel Gilkes1 0 3 04
- 1Emil Sajfutdinow1 3 3 3 3 316+1
- 2Keynan Rew2 2 0 15+1
- 3Danny King2 2 2 17
- 4Erik Riss0 0 0 11
- 5Jason Doyle2 3 1 0 06
- 6Danyon Hume2 1 0 03
- 7Dan ThompsonR 0 11
Heat by heat
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW1*
- Lewis Kerr · SHEFD
- Kyle Howarth · SHE3
- Danyon Hume · IPW2
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE1
- Dan Thompson · IPWR
- Adam Ellis · SHE3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Joshua Pickering · SHE1
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Jason Doyle · IPW2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Dan Thompson · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Keynan Rew · IPW2*
- Joshua Pickering · SHE1
- Adam Ellis · SHEFD
- Jason Doyle · IPW3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Danyon Hume · IPW1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2*
- Dan Thompson · IPW1
- Keynan Rew · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Joshua Pickering · SHE2
- Jason Doyle · IPW1
- Adam Ellis · SHE0
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Danny King · IPW2
- Kyle Howarth · SHE1
- Erik Riss · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Keynan Rew · IPW1
- Daniel Gilkes · SHE0
- Adam Ellis · SHE3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2*
- Danny King · IPW1
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Jack Holder · SHE1*
- Jason Doyle · IPW0
- Joshua Pickering · SHE3
- Kyle Howarth · SHE2*
- Erik Riss · IPW1
- Danyon Hume · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW3
- Jack Holder · SHE2
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE1*
- Jason Doyle · IPW0
- Emil Sajfutdinow · IPW4
- Jack Holder · SHE3
- Tobiasz Musielak · SHE2
- Jason Doyle · IPW0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 19 → 17 °C
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Wind
- 18 km/h S
- gusts up to 33 km/h
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 1.3 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 75 %
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | −6 | |
| 5–7 | 7 | 11 | −4 | +4 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 14–16 | 13 | 8 | +5 | −5 | |
| SHE | IPW | SHE | IPW | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead SHE
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 66 % |
| 2 | +2 | 77 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +6 | 90 % |
| 5 | +2 | 69 % |
| 6 | 0 | 66 % |
| 7 | +2 | 70 % |
| 8 | +6 | 90 % |
| 9 | +4 | 88 % |
| 10 | +6 | 92 % |
| 11 | +4 | 88 % |
| 12 | +8 | 98 % |
| 13 | +8 | 98 % |
| 14 | +12 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobiasz Musielak | 6 | 8.8 | 12 | +3.2 |
| Emil Sajfutdinow | 7 | 16.0 | 19 | +3.0 |
| Joshua Pickering | 4 | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 |
| Adam Ellis | 4 | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 |
| Jack Holder | 6 | 12.3 | 13 | +0.7 |
| Daniel Gilkes | 4 | 3.4 | 4 | +0.6 |
| Keynan Rew | 4 | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 |
| Kyle Howarth | 7 | 11.7 | 12 | +0.3 |
| Danny King | 4 | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 |
| Danyon Hume | 4 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Lewis Kerr | 1 | 0.7 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Dan Thompson | 3 | 2.2 | 1 | -1.2 |
| Erik Riss | 4 | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Jason Doyle | 6 | 11.2 | 6 | -5.2 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.