LEI vs BVA
ROWE Motor Oil Premiership · Thursday, June 15, 2023 · Hydroscand Arena, Leicester
Results
- 1Max Fricke3 3 3 3 315
- 2Justin Sedgmen2 2 3 29+3
- 3Richard Lawson0 3 2 38
- 4Chris Harris3 1 1 3 08+1
- 5Nick Morris3 1 2 06
- 6Jake Allen1 0 0 12+1
- 7Drew Kemp2 2 0 FD4+1
- 1Dan Bewley1 2 3 2 2 212
- 2Tom Brennan0 0 2 13
- 3Jaimon Lidsey2 3 0 16+1
- 4Charles Wright1 2 1 XO4+2
- 5Brady Kurtz0 1 3 1 16+2
- 6Norick Blödorn3 0 0 25
- 7Jake Mulford0 1 12+1
Heat by heat
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI2*
- Dan Bewley · BVA1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Norick Blödorn · BVA3
- Drew Kemp · LEI2
- Jake Allen · LEI1*
- Jake Mulford · BVA0
- Chris Harris · LEI3
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA2
- Charles Wright · BVA1*
- Richard Lawson · LEI0
- Nick Morris · LEI3
- Drew Kemp · LEI2*
- Jake Mulford · BVA1
- Brady Kurtz · BVA0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Chris Harris · LEI1
- Tom Brennan · BVA0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI2*
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA3
- Charles Wright · BVA2*
- Nick Morris · LEI1
- Jake Allen · LEI0
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI3
- Tom Brennan · BVA2
- Jake Mulford · BVA1*
- Drew Kemp · LEI0
- Brady Kurtz · BVA3
- Richard Lawson · LEI2
- Chris Harris · LEI1*
- Norick Blödorn · BVA0
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Justin Sedgmen · LEI2*
- Charles Wright · BVA1
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA0
- Dan Bewley · BVA3
- Nick Morris · LEI2
- Tom Brennan · BVA1
- Jake Allen · LEI0
- Richard Lawson · LEI3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Jaimon Lidsey · BVA1*
- Drew Kemp · LEIFD
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1*
- Nick Morris · LEI0
- Chris Harris · LEI3
- Norick Blödorn · BVA2
- Jake Allen · LEI1
- Charles Wright · BVAXO
- Max Fricke · LEI3
- Dan Bewley · BVA2
- Brady Kurtz · BVA1*
- Chris Harris · LEI0
Conditions
Weather at the track from the start to the end of the meeting.
- Sky
- Partly cloudy → Cloudy
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Temperature
- 24 → 18 °C
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Wind
- 16 km/h E
- gusts up to 28 km/h
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
- Rain during the meeting
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Rain in the 24 hours before
- 0 mm
- Regional estimate (Meteostat)
- Humidity
- 54 %
- Measured · East Midlands / Castle Donington, 22 km away
Weather data (summarised): Meteostat and its data providers, CC BY 4.0
Match by phase
Each team's points in each phase of the programme from the first heats down, and the balance: who won the phase and by how much.
| Points | Balance | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 16 | 8 | +8 | −8 | |
| 5–7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | −2 | |
| 8–10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | −4 | |
| 11–13 | 8 | 10 | −2 | +2 | |
| 14–15 | 7 | 5 | +2 | −2 | |
| LEI | BVA | LEI | BVA | ||
The match heat by heat
Running score difference (home − away) after each heat, and the home team's chance to win from that lead in other matches.
- Lead LEI
| Heat | Lead | Home win chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | 85 % |
| 2 | +4 | 86 % |
| 3 | +4 | 82 % |
| 4 | +8 | 93 % |
| 5 | +10 | 96 % |
| 6 | +14 | 99 % |
| 7 | +10 | 97 % |
| 8 | +10 | 98 % |
| 9 | +10 | 97 % |
| 10 | +14 | 99 % |
| 11 | +12 | 100 % |
| 12 | +12 | 100 % |
| 13 | +12 | 100 % |
| 14 | +14 | 100 % |
Pre-meeting expectation
Heat points the model expected from each rider before the meeting (Elo ratings, three opponents of the meeting's average), against what they scored.
| Rider | heats | Expected | Scored | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fricke | 5 | 10.4 | 15 | +4.6 |
| Justin Sedgmen | 4 | 5.0 | 9 | +4.0 |
| Richard Lawson | 4 | 5.6 | 8 | +2.4 |
| Chris Harris | 5 | 7.2 | 8 | +0.8 |
| Nick Morris | 4 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| Jake Mulford | 3 | 1.5 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Drew Kemp | 4 | 4.0 | 4 | +0.0 |
| Norick Blödorn | 4 | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 |
| Dan Bewley | 6 | 13.6 | 12 | -1.6 |
| Jaimon Lidsey | 4 | 7.8 | 6 | -1.8 |
| Tom Brennan | 4 | 4.8 | 3 | -1.8 |
| Jake Allen | 4 | 3.8 | 2 | -1.8 |
| Charles Wright | 4 | 6.1 | 4 | -2.1 |
| Brady Kurtz | 5 | 9.7 | 6 | -3.7 |
Track & gates
Starting gates
One strip per gate, inside to outside, on the same heats: the columns are the points from that gate in each heat (0–3), the solid line the average of the last four heats, the dashed line the trend over the meeting.
Inside vs outside
Heat by heat, the points from the inside gates minus the outside gates, weighted by how far out the gate is: the inner and outer gate count fully, the two middle gates a third. Bars to the left: the inside scored more, to the right: the outside, as on the track. With the average of the last four heats and the trend over the meeting.